光大期货金融期货日报-20250930

Report Industry Investment Rating - Stock index: Bullish [1] - Treasury bonds: Sideways [1] Core Viewpoints - The A-share market fluctuated at a high level, with the Wind All A index rising 1.37% and a turnover of 2.18 trillion yuan. The CSI 1000, CSI 500, SSE 50, and SSE 300 indices also showed varying degrees of increase. The market should closely monitor policy announcements during the holiday and the progress of the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee. The Fed cut interest rates by 25BP, but its stance was cautious, and there were differences within the Fed regarding the path of interest rate cuts this year. The market expects three interest rate cuts this year. The logic of loose domestic and foreign liquidity and the rise in A-share valuations remains unchanged. Short-term volatility may increase, and there is potential for further upward movement in the long term. After November, the market may gradually return to fundamental trading, and attention should be paid to the year-on-year revenue growth rate in the A-share third-quarter reports and other indicators [1]. - Treasury bond futures closed with declines in the 30-year, 10-year, 5-year, and 2-year contracts. The central bank conducted 2886 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repurchase operations, with a net injection of 481 billion yuan. The weighted average interest rate of DR001 decreased, while that of DR007 increased. Currently, loose funds are beneficial to the bond market, but the cooling of expectations for monetary policy interest rate cuts and the increase in quasi-fiscal tools restrict the bond market. With the continuous advancement of anti-involution policies and the bullish stock market, bond market sentiment is cautious, and the sideways and bearish trend continues. During the holiday, attention should be paid to the September PMI data and holiday consumption and travel data [1][2] Summary by Directory Research Views - Stock Index: The A-share market showed a high-level shock, with different indices rising to varying degrees. The market needs to pay attention to policy announcements during the holiday and the progress of the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee. The Fed cut interest rates, but there were differences in the path of interest rate cuts. The logic of loose liquidity and rising valuations remains unchanged, with short-term volatility expected to increase and long-term upward potential. After November, the market may return to fundamental trading, and attention should be paid to relevant indicators [1]. - Treasury Bonds: Treasury bond futures closed lower, and the central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations with a net injection of funds. The weighted average interest rates of DR001 and DR007 changed. Loose funds are beneficial to the bond market, but the cooling of interest rate cut expectations and the increase in quasi-fiscal tools restrict the bond market. With the bullish stock market, bond market sentiment is cautious, and the sideways and bearish trend continues. Attention should be paid to relevant data during the holiday [1][2] Daily Price Changes - Stock Index Futures: The prices of IH, IF, IC, and IM increased, with increases of 1.07%, 1.76%, 2.15%, and 2.06% respectively [3]. - Stock Indices: The SSE 50, SSE 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 indices all rose, with increases of 1.09%, 1.54%, 1.51%, and 1.36% respectively [3]. - Treasury Bond Futures: The prices of TS, TF, T, and TL decreased, with decreases of 0.02%, 0.05%, 0.02%, and 0.41% respectively [3]. - Treasury Bond Yields: The yields of 2-year, 5-year, 10-year, and 30-year treasury bonds changed, with changes of -0.94, 0.33, 0.11, and 1.1 respectively [3] Market News - On September 29, the National Development and Reform Commission announced that it is promoting the work of new policy-based financial instruments with a total scale of 500 billion yuan, all of which will be used to supplement project capital. The funds will be invested in specific projects, and local governments will be urged to accelerate project construction to promote economic development [4] Chart Analysis - Stock Index Futures: The report presents the trend charts of IH, IF, IM, and IC main contracts, as well as the basis trend charts of each index [6][7][9]. - Treasury Bond Futures: The report shows the trend charts of treasury bond futures main contracts, treasury bond spot yields, basis, inter - period spreads, cross - variety spreads, and fund interest rates [13][14][19]. - Exchange Rates: The report provides the trend charts of the US dollar against the RMB, the euro against the RMB, forward exchange rates, the US dollar index, and various currency pairs [23][24][27]