液化石油气四季度展望：供应充裕，旺季需求想象空间有限

Report Overview - The report is titled "Supply Abundant, Limited Imagination Space for Peak-season Demand - Outlook for LPG in the Fourth Quarter" and is published by Orient Securities Derivatives Research Institute on September 30, 2025 [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Report's Core View - In the fourth quarter, although it is the traditional combustion peak season, the supply and demand of domestic LPG and overseas propane are expected to remain relatively loose. With limited contradictions, there is little chance of a trending market. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of shorting on the domestic market when prices are high and to be bearish on the overseas FEI [86] Q3 Market Review External Market - In Q3, the external market price was weak first and then strong. The change in trade flow and cargo flow bottlenecks pushed the relative valuation of the Far East Inbound Price (FEI) to strengthen significantly in August. The trading opportunities in Q3 were mostly short - term band trading opportunities caused by valuation deviations and short - term contradictions on the spot side [2][8] - In July, the external market was weak due to weak fundamentals and poor spot sentiment. Propane demand was dragged down by the year - on - year weakness in the cracking end, and the international supply surplus continued. In August, the relative valuation of FEI strengthened, mainly supported by the increase in transportation costs due to trade flow changes and cargo flow bottlenecks. In September, the contradiction weakened [8] Domestic Market - In Q3, the domestic market contradictions were stronger than those in the external market. Under the weak spot expectation, the number of warehouse receipts reached a record high. In July, the domestic market fell smoothly under the pressure of weak fundamentals in the off - season. The spot price was mainly lowered, and the number of PG registered warehouse receipts reached a record high, putting obvious pressure on the market [9][15] LPG Fundamental Outlook for the Fourth Quarter Supply Side United States - The net production of C3 in the United States has remained at a stable high level in Q3, and the commissioning of the Frac XVI fractionation unit in Q4 is expected to further increase the regional production. The current C3 inventory is slightly higher than that of the same period last year, at a seasonally neutral to high level [19] - The export volume of the United States has been basically stable at about 5.8 million tons per month this year. Although the export capacity of the docks has increased, the export volume is affected by multiple factors such as the actual change in Northeast Asian demand, the progress of China - US tariff games, and the passage of the Panama Canal [25] - The factors affecting the passage of the Panama Canal include drought, passage rules, and economy. In Q4, the focus is on the potential impact of USTR and possible hurricanes in the US Gulf on capacity allocation and loading [26][38] - The congestion of the Panama Canal in August temporarily pushed up the FEI - MB spread. The impact of USTR on the LPG market is expected to be limited, as the proportion of Chinese - operated ships is relatively low, and the market hype about USTR is gradually subsiding [31][42] Middle East - The CP price was weak in Q3. In Q4, the export increment in the Middle East is expected to be limited. The potential increment comes from OPEC+ production increase, but the export volume usually decreases seasonally in Q4 due to strong local demand in winter and seasonal maintenance of production facilities [50] Demand Side Combustion Demand - India's LPG import volume increased by 7.4% year - on - year to 17 million tons from January to September this year. The strong demand is supported by factors such as the growth of domestic terminal consumption, the commissioning of infrastructure projects, and the commissioning of new PDH devices. The annual import growth rate is expected to be about 6% [51][58] Chemical Demand - The LPG import volume of domestic flexible cracking terminals has decreased significantly this year due to China - US tariffs. In Q3, LPG had certain feedstock economic advantages over naphtha, but the overall LPG consumption in Far East cracking was weaker than last year. In Q4, it is difficult for FEI - MOPJ to provide strong economic incentives for LPG cracking feedstock demand [66] - The PDH demand may have reached a phased peak in Q3. In Q4, the operating rate is expected to be difficult to increase, and the feedstock demand is unlikely to have an optimistic performance, especially considering the expiration of the current China - US tariff plan in November [72] China - The domestic refinery gas commodity volume is abundant. In Q4, the external release volume is expected to further increase. Considering the high inventory in East China, the spot price in East China is expected to continue to be under pressure, and the lowest deliverable product of domestic civil LPG in October is still likely to be anchored in the East China region [85]