装置重启带动丙烯供应回升

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; Inter - period: After the end of maintenance, pay attention to the short - spread of PL01 - 02 when it rises; Inter - variety: None [3] Core View - Upstream plant restart expectations and insufficient downstream demand have led to the recent weak operation of propylene spot and low - level fluctuations in the futures market. On the supply side, the restart and capacity increase of Shandong Zhenhua and Qingdao Jinneng's PDH plants, along with the release of new capacity from Yulong, have increased the supply pressure in the short term. On the demand side, the pre - holiday stocking demand from downstream factories is weakening, and they are still restricted by cost pressures, mainly making low - price and just - in - time purchases. In terms of cost, the plan of OPEC+ to increase oil production in November has put pressure on international oil prices, and the relatively strong price of propane overseas has limited the cost support for propylene [2] Summary by Directory 1. Propylene Basis Structure - The report shows data on the closing price of the propylene main contract, the basis in East China and North China, the 01 - 05 contract of propylene, and the market prices in East China and Shandong [1][6][9][11] 2. Propylene Production Profit and Operating Rate - It includes data on the difference between China's CFR propylene and Japan's CFR naphtha, propylene capacity utilization rate, PDH production gross profit and capacity utilization rate, MTO production gross profit and methanol - to - olefins capacity utilization rate, and propylene naphtha cracking production gross profit and crude oil refinery capacity utilization rate [15][23][25][28] 3. Propylene Import and Export Profit - The report presents data on the differences between South Korea's FOB and China's CFR, Japan's CFR and China's CFR, Southeast Asia's CFR and China's CFR, and propylene import profit [32][34] 4. Propylene Downstream Profit and Operating Rate - It contains data on the production profit and operating rate of PP powder, propylene oxide, n - butanol, octanol, acrylic acid, acrylonitrile, and phenol - acetone [40][42][45][53][56][58][60] 5. Propylene Inventory - The report shows data on propylene in - plant inventory and PP powder in - plant inventory [65]