光大期货碳酸锂日报（2025年9月30日）-20250930

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The price of the lithium carbonate futures 2511 contract rose 0.93% to 73,920 yuan/ton yesterday. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 73,550 yuan/ton, and the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate dropped by 50 yuan/ton to 71,300 yuan/ton. The price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) fell by 150 yuan/ton to 73,730 yuan/ton. The warehouse receipt inventory increased by 790 tons to 41,119 tons [3]. - Due to the suspension of raw material supply from Ningde Times' Yichun lithium mine, the joint - venture company Longpan Times of Ningde Times and Longpan Technology stopped production on September 25. It is expected to resume production in November. Longpan Technology is actively expanding procurement sources [3]. - On the supply side, the weekly output increased by 153 tons to 20,516 tons. On the demand side, the weekly output of ternary materials increased by 113 tons to 16,762 tons, and the inventory increased by 351 tons to 17,896 tons; the weekly output of lithium iron phosphate increased by 1,680 tons to 79,823 tons, and the inventory increased by 2,069 tons to 98,286 tons. The weekly inventory decreased by 706 tons to 136,825 tons, mainly due to downstream restocking [3]. - Approaching the National Day, the peak demand season, lithium carbonate destocking, and firm lithium ore prices still support the price. However, the pre - holiday stocking demand may gradually weaken, and there is an expectation of project resumption after the holiday, but there is still some uncertainty. Position management is necessary [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research View - Price Changes: The lithium carbonate futures 2511 contract price increased by 0.93% to 73,920 yuan/ton. Battery - grade lithium carbonate, industrial - grade lithium carbonate, and battery - grade lithium hydroxide prices declined, while the warehouse receipt inventory increased by 790 tons to 41,119 tons [3]. - News: Longpan Times stopped production on September 25 due to raw material supply issues and is expected to resume in November. The company is actively seeking new procurement sources [3]. - Supply and Demand: Supply increased by 153 tons to 20,516 tons, with different changes in various production methods. Demand for ternary materials and lithium iron phosphate increased in both production and inventory. The overall inventory decreased by 706 tons to 136,825 tons [3]. - Price Outlook: Near the National Day, price support exists, but pre - holiday demand may weaken, and post - holiday project resumption has uncertainties [3]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - Futures and Lithium Ore: The main and continuous contract closing prices of lithium carbonate futures increased. The price of lithium spodumene concentrate rose by 1 US dollar/ton, while other lithium ore prices remained unchanged [5]. - Lithium Salts: The prices of battery - grade lithium carbonate, industrial - grade lithium carbonate, and various types of lithium hydroxide decreased, except for the unchanged price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (CIF China, Japan, and South Korea). The price of lithium hexafluorophosphate increased by 2,000 yuan/ton [5]. - Price Spreads: The price spread between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate remained unchanged, while the spread between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 100 yuan/ton [5]. - Precursors and Cathode Materials: The prices of ternary precursors and cathode materials mostly increased, while the prices of lithium iron phosphate decreased slightly, and the prices of manganese acid lithium remained unchanged. The price of cobalt acid lithium increased by 16,000 yuan/ton [5]. - Cells and Batteries: The price of 523 square ternary cells increased slightly, and the price of cobalt acid lithium cells increased by 0.3 yuan/Ah, while other cell and battery prices remained unchanged [5]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - Ore Prices: Charts show the price trends of lithium spodumene concentrate, lithium mica, and other ores from 2024 to 2025 [6][8]. - Lithium and Lithium Salt Prices: Charts display the price trends of metallic lithium, battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, lithium hydroxide, and lithium hexafluorophosphate from 2024 to 2025 [11][13][15]. - Price Spreads: Charts present the price spreads between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, and other spreads from 2024 to 2025 [18][20][21]. - Precursors and Cathode Materials: Charts show the price trends of ternary precursors, ternary materials, lithium iron phosphate, manganese acid lithium, and cobalt acid lithium from 2024 to 2025 [25][28][30]. - Lithium Battery Prices: Charts display the price trends of 523 square ternary cells, square lithium iron phosphate cells, cobalt acid lithium cells, and square lithium iron phosphate batteries from 2024 to 2025 [32][35]. - Inventory: Charts show the inventory trends of downstream, smelters, and other links from 2025 [39][41]. - Production Cost: The chart presents the production profit trends of lithium carbonate from different raw materials from 2024 to 2025 [45]. 3.4 Research Team Introduction - Zhan Dapeng, a science master, is the director of the non - ferrous research department at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with rich experience and many honors [47]. - Wang Heng, a finance master from the University of Adelaide, Australia, focuses on aluminum and silicon research [48]. - Zhu Xi, a science master from the University of Warwick, UK, mainly studies lithium and nickel [48].