航运衍生品数据日报-20250930

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The shipping market shows a weak and volatile trend. The main reason is that CM4 raised the November freight rate to 3000, and MSK kept the freight rate for the second week of October at 1400, which increased the expectation of stopping the decline. However, the confidence in price increases gradually declined, and there was a reduction in positions and a price drop before the holiday [7]. - In late September, shipping companies collectively lowered prices to compete for goods, and the freight rate once dropped to 1300 US dollars/FEU. Before the peak season at the end of the year, Maersk took the lead in announcing a 400 - dollar/FEU increase for the second half of October. But with the decline in both supply and demand in October, it is likely to return to the off - season market. Subsequently, European routes will focus on stabilizing and supporting prices during the transition between the off - season and peak season, and it is difficult for shipping companies' announced price increases to materialize [8]. - The recommended strategy is to conduct a long - short spread trade between the October and December contracts [9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Shipping Freight Index - Spot Freight Index: The current values of Shanghai Export Container Freight Composite Index (SCFI), China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI), SCFI - US West, SCFIS - US West, SCFI - US East, and SCFI - Northwest Europe are 1115, 1087, 1460, 921, 2385, and 971 respectively, with corresponding declines of - 6.97%, - 2.93%, - 10.76%, - 22.80%, - 6.73%, and - 7.70% compared to the previous values. The current values of SCFIS - Northwest Europe and SCFI - Mediterranean are 1120 and 1485 respectively, with declines of - 6.12% and - 9.34% [5]. - Contract Freight Index: The current values of contracts EC2506, EC2608, EC2510, EC2512, EC5602, and EC2604 are 1452.7, 1595.0, 1115.0, 1756.3, 1667.0, and 1253.0 respectively, with declines of - 2.08%, - 1.37%, - 2.11%, - 1.16%, - 1.07%, and - 1.23% compared to the previous values [5]. - Contract Positions: The current positions of EC2606, EC2608, EC2410, EC2412, EC2602, and EC2604 are 930, 530, 29314, 20683, 8852, and 9110 respectively. The position changes are - 8, - 12, - 3117, - 1012, 84, and 11 respectively [5]. - Monthly Spread: The current monthly spreads of 10 - 12, 12 - 2, and 12 - 4 are - 641.3, 89.3, and 503.3 respectively, with changes of - 3.3, - 2.7, and - 5.1 compared to the previous values [5]. 3.2 Market News and Analysis - Trans - Pacific shipping companies are increasing capacity cuts to curb the decline in freight rates. On the east - west trans - Pacific routes, the spot freight rate has fallen below the fixed contract price signed by medium - sized retailers in May. In the next four weeks, trans - Pacific liner companies will accelerate the implementation of blank sailings to stabilize the continuously falling spot freight rate. The market is unusually weak before the Golden Week this year [6]. - The spot prices this week: GEMINI in early October dropped to 1500, OA to 1550, PA to 1400, and MSC to 1600. The market FMK freight rate center in late September was at 1500 [7].