节前避险情绪浓郁，油脂价格震荡

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is neutral [4] Group 2: Core View of the Report - Before the holiday, the risk - aversion sentiment is strong, and the prices of oils and fats are fluctuating. The long - short factors are superimposed, and the trends may diverge. In the short term, due to market risk - aversion during the two festivals, the prices will mainly fluctuate [1][3] Group 3: Market Analysis Futures Market - The closing price of the palm oil 2601 contract was 9,234.00 yuan/ton, with a环比 change of - 2 yuan and a decline of - 0.02%. The closing price of the soybean oil 2601 contract was 8,150.00 yuan/ton, with a环比 change of - 12.00 yuan and a decline of - 0.15%. The closing price of the rapeseed oil 2601 contract was 10,093.00 yuan/ton, with a环比 change of - 69.00 yuan and a decline of - 0.68% [1] Spot Market - In the Guangdong region, the spot price of palm oil was 9,190.00 yuan/ton, with a环比 change of + 0.00 yuan and an increase of + 0.00%, and the spot basis was P01 + - 44.00, with a环比 change of + 2.00 yuan. In the Tianjin region, the spot price of first - grade soybean oil was 8,340.00 yuan/ton, with a环比 change of - 40.00 yuan/ton and a decline of - 0.48%, and the spot basis was Y01 + 190.00, with a环比 change of - 28.00 yuan. In the Jiangsu region, the spot price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil was 10,310.00 yuan/ton, with a环比 change of - 70.00 yuan and a decline of - 0.67%, and the spot basis was OI01 + 217.00, with a环比 change of - 1.00 yuan [1] Group 4: Recent Market Information Summary US Soybean Export - As of the week ending September 25, 2025, the US shipped 0 tons of soybeans to China (Mainland). The US soybean export inspection volume was 593,956 tons, compared with the revised 565,630 tons of the previous week. The cumulative US soybean export inspection volume for this crop year was 2,246,104 tons, compared with 1,929,770 tons in the same period of the previous year [2] South American Crop Progress - As of last Thursday, the planting progress of Brazil's 2025/26 soybean crop was 3.2%, higher than 0.9% a week ago and 2% in the same period last year. The planting progress of the first - crop corn in Brazil's central - southern region reached 32% [2] International Oil and Fat Prices - The C&F price of Canadian rapeseed (November shipment) was 509 US dollars/ton, down 4 US dollars/ton from the previous trading day; the C&F price of Canadian rapeseed (January shipment) was 519 US dollars/ton, down 3 US dollars/ton. The C&F price of Argentine soybean oil (October shipment) was 1,113 US dollars/ton, up 12 US dollars/ton; the C&F price of Argentine soybean oil (December shipment) was 1,111 US dollars/ton, up 11 US dollars/ton. The C&F price of Canadian rapeseed oil (October shipment) was 1,125 US dollars/ton, up 20 US dollars/ton; the C&F price of Canadian rapeseed oil (December shipment) was 1,105 US dollars/ton, up 20 US dollars/ton. The C&F price of US Gulf soybeans (November shipment) was 457 US dollars/ton, down 3 US dollars/ton; the C&F price of US West soybeans (November shipment) was 433 US dollars/ton, up 3 US dollars/ton; the C&F price of Brazilian soybeans (November shipment) was 477 US dollars/ton, down 1 US dollar/ton [2] Imported Soybean Premiums - The import premium of Mexican Gulf soybeans (November shipment) was 232 cents/bushel, down 8 cents/bushel; the import premium of US West Coast soybeans (November shipment) was 165 cents/bushel, up 5 cents/bushel; the import premium of Brazilian ports' soybeans (November shipment) was 285 cents/bushel, down 5 cents/bushel [2] Group 5: Support and Pressure Factors for Oil and Fat Prices Support Factors - Palm oil is gradually entering the seasonal production - reduction cycle, and the demand is good. The low inventory of rapeseed oil will support the oil and fat prices to a certain extent [3] Pressure Factors - The expectation of a bumper US soybean harvest is gradually being realized, and the sowing in South America is going smoothly, which will put some pressure on the oil and fat prices [3]