市场成交转淡，铅价维持震荡格局

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the lead industry is cautiously bullish [3] 2. Core View of the Report - The lead market trading has become lighter, and the lead price maintains a volatile pattern. Although the purchasing enthusiasm of downstream battery enterprises is relatively weak due to the approaching National Day holiday, the lead ore supply remains relatively tight. Coupled with the overall positive impact of the Fed's interest - rate cut cycle on non - ferrous metals, it is recommended to use the strategy of buying on dips for hedging in the lead market [1][2][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data Spot - On September 29, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was -$41.63 per ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price decreased by 125 yuan/ton to 16,800 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium changed by 25 yuan/ton to 0.00 yuan/ton. The SMM Guangdong lead price decreased by 125 yuan/ton to 16,825 yuan/ton, and the SMM Henan lead price also decreased by 125 yuan/ton to 16,825 yuan/ton. The SMM Tianjin lead spot premium changed by - 113 yuan/ton to 16,850 yuan/ton. The lead refined - scrap price difference remained unchanged at - 25 yuan/ton. The price of waste electric vehicle batteries increased by 25 yuan/ton to 10,000 yuan/ton, while the prices of waste white shells and waste black shells remained unchanged at 10,075 yuan/ton and 10,350 yuan/ton respectively [1] Futures - On September 29, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 17,065 yuan/ton and closed at 16,855 yuan/ton, a decrease of 255 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The trading volume was 76,219 lots, an increase of 26,944 lots compared to the previous trading day, and the position was 48,797 lots, a decrease of 11,865 lots compared to the previous trading day. The intraday price fluctuated, with the highest point reaching 17,110 yuan/ton and the lowest point reaching 16,845 yuan/ton. In the night session, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 17,375 yuan/ton and closed at 17,365 yuan/ton, a rise of 65 yuan/ton compared to the afternoon closing price [2] Inventory - On September 29, 2025, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 42,000 tons, a decrease of 4,300 tons compared to the same period last week. As of September 29, the LME lead inventory was 218,825 tons, a decrease of 600 tons compared to the previous trading day [2] Strategy - It is recommended to use the strategy of buying on dips for hedging in the lead market, with the buying range between 16,950 yuan/ton and 17,000 yuan/ton [3]