氯碱日报：市场成交一般，氯碱震荡偏弱-20250930

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The market trading is average, and the chlor - alkali market shows a weak and fluctuating trend. PVC supply is abundant, downstream consumption is limited, and the export side shows some resilience. The 32% alkali spot price of caustic soda has been continuously reduced, the 50% alkali orders have improved, and the inventory situation is complex, with attention needed on downstream procurement and production capacity expansion [1][3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data PVC - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the PVC main contract is 4,896 yuan/ton (-1), the East China basis is -176 yuan/ton (+1), and the South China basis is -86 yuan/ton (+1) [1]. - Spot price: The East China calcium carbide - based PVC is quoted at 4,720 yuan/ton (+0), and the South China calcium carbide - based PVC is quoted at 4,810 yuan/ton (-10) [1]. - Upstream production profit: The semi - coke price is 690 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide price is 2,890 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide profit is 48 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide - based PVC production gross profit is -784 yuan/ton (-127), the ethylene - based PVC production gross profit is -645 yuan/ton (+7), and the PVC export profit is 7.1 dollars/ton (+1.4) [1]. - Inventory and operation rate: The PVC in - factory inventory is 31.8 million tons (+1.2), the social inventory is 53.5 million tons (+0.0), the calcium carbide - based PVC operation rate is 76.97% (+0.06%), the ethylene - based PVC operation rate is 74.12% (+2.12%), and the overall PVC operation rate is 76.11% (+0.68%) [1]. - Downstream orders: The pre - sales volume of production enterprises is 75.9 million tons (+0.4) [1]. Caustic Soda - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the SH main contract is 2,515 yuan/ton (-13), and the basis of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is -15 yuan/ton (+13) [1]. - Spot price: The price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 800 yuan/ton (+0), and the price of 50% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 1,300 yuan/ton (+0) [1]. - Upstream production profit: The single - variety profit of caustic soda in Shandong is 1,509 yuan/ton (+0), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (0.8 tons of liquid chlorine) is 725.8 yuan/ton (+0.0), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (1 ton of PVC) is 159.78 yuan/ton (-20.00), and the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in the Northwest (1 ton of PVC) is 1,381.75 yuan/ton (+0.00) [2]. - Inventory and operation rate: The liquid caustic soda factory inventory is 39.12 million tons (+1.29), the flake caustic soda factory inventory is 2.08 million tons (-0.10), and the caustic soda operation rate is 82.50% (+0.60%) [2]. - Downstream operation rate: The alumina operation rate is 85.95% (-0.28%), the printing and dyeing operation rate in East China is 66.15% (+0.39%), and the viscose staple fiber operation rate is 89.82% (+0.30%) [2]. Market Analysis PVC - The PVC market fluctuates with the macro - environment. The supply is abundant with planned maintenance in some areas and new production capacity ramping up. Although enterprises are actively pre - selling, downstream operation rates are generally slightly down, and consumption is limited. The export side shows some resilience, but the PVC wallpaper anti - dumping investigation in India may have an impact on exports [3]. Caustic Soda - The spot price of 32% caustic soda has been continuously reduced, the 50% caustic soda orders have improved, and the price has stabilized. Supply may increase slightly, and demand from the alumina industry is stable but with high - price sales difficulties. There are differences in inventory changes, and attention should be paid to downstream procurement, production capacity expansion, and cost support [3]. Strategy PVC - Unilateral: Hold [4]. - Inter - delivery spread: Sell the near - term contract and buy the far - term contract for V01 - V05 when the spread is high [4]. - Inter - commodity spread: No strategy [4]. Caustic Soda - Unilateral: Hold [5]. - Inter - delivery spread: Buy the near - term contract and sell the far - term contract for SH01 - SH05 when the spread is low, paying attention to downstream procurement rhythm and alumina capacity expansion progress [5]. - Inter - commodity spread: No strategy [5].