原油日报：东区市场紧张缓解，迪拜月差结构持续转弱-20250930

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The recent rapid decline in the Dubai crude oil monthly spread structure indicates a reversal in the market situation in the Middle East and Asia - Pacific. With weaker Chinese buying interest, increased Middle East exports, and more arbitrage cargoes flowing from the West to the East, the tight supply - demand pattern has been corrected. As time passes, the long - position holders have fewer favorable factors. The rapid increase in floating storage recently shows that supply surplus is gradually materializing. Although the dual - market of sensitive oil and compliant oil due to sanctions offsets part of the supply surplus, if China reduces compliant oil purchases and India and Turkey continue to absorb sanctioned oil despite political pressure, future oil prices will face downward pressure [2] Group 3: Summary According to Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data - The SC crude oil main contract closed down 2.87%, at 480 yuan per barrel [1] - On September 28 local time, the UN Secretary - General's spokesperson's office confirmed that six Iran - related sanctions resolutions passed by the UN Security Council have come back into force since 8 p.m. EDT on September 27. The resolutions include Nos. 1696, 1737, 1747, 1803, 1835, and 1929. The sanctions committee list of Resolution 1737 covers 43 individuals and 78 entities related to Iran's nuclear program, military industry, and finance [1] - OPEC+ may approve an increase in oil production by at least 137,000 barrels per day at its meeting next Sunday as rising oil prices encourage the organization to regain market share. Since April, OPEC+ has changed its production - cut strategy and has cumulatively increased the quota by more than 2.5 million barrels per day, accounting for about 2.4% of global oil demand. OPEC+ will hold an online meeting on October 5 with eight member countries to decide on the production arrangement for November [1] - An Iraqi oil ministry official said that the resumption of the Iraq - Turkey oil pipeline will increase crude oil exports to nearly 3.6 million barrels per day in the coming days. Iraq's production and export levels will remain within the OPEC - set quota of 4.2 million barrels per day [1] - The WTO reported that the EU has appealed against the panel report on the dispute over Indonesia's biodiesel import tariffs [1] Investment Logic - The rapid decline in the Dubai crude oil monthly spread structure shows a change in the Middle East - Asia - Pacific market. Weaker Chinese demand, more Middle East exports, and increased supply from the West lead to a supply - demand correction. The increasing floating storage implies supply surplus, and future oil prices may face downward pressure under certain conditions [2] Strategy - Oil prices will fluctuate in the short - term. Maintain the idea of short - selling at high prices [3]