燃料油日报：市场短期矛盾有限，节前保持谨慎-20250930

Group 1: Market Analysis - The main contract of SHFE fuel oil futures closed up 0.17% at 2,919 yuan/ton, and the main contract of INE low-sulfur fuel oil futures closed up 0.29% at 3,480 yuan/ton [1] - Crude oil prices have rebounded recently, but the expectation of a looser medium-term balance sheet is suppressing the market. Considering the unclear geopolitical situation, oil prices may fluctuate significantly during the National Day holiday [1] - In terms of the fundamentals of fuel oil itself, the market structure of high-sulfur fuel oil has strengthened marginally, and the reduction in the number of registered futures warehouse receipts has also provided additional support for the FU futures structure. However, based on the current valuation level and supply-demand situation, the upward driving force of the high-sulfur fuel oil market is still limited and requires new variables [1] - For low-sulfur fuel oil, the recent shutdown of RFCC units at the Dangote and Pengerang refineries has led to an increase in local low-sulfur fuel oil supply, suppressing the crack spread and monthly spread structure. However, domestic production remains at a medium to low level, and the strong premium of gasoline and diesel has diverted low-sulfur oil components. Overall, the supply pressure is relatively limited. In the medium term, the trend of substitution of low-sulfur marine fuel demand share has not reversed, and there is still significant resistance above the market [1] Group 2: Strategy - High-sulfur fuel oil: Neutral in the short term and bearish in the medium term [2] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: Neutral in the short term and bearish in the medium term [2] - Cross-variety: No strategy [2] - Cross-period: Go long on the FU2511 - 2512 spread on dips [2] - Spot-futures: No strategy [2] - Options: No strategy [2] Group 3: Figures - Figures include Singapore high-sulfur 380 fuel oil spot price, Singapore low-sulfur fuel oil spot price, Singapore high-sulfur fuel oil swap near-month contract, Singapore low-sulfur fuel oil swap near-month contract, Singapore high-sulfur fuel oil near-month spread, Singapore low-sulfur fuel oil near-month spread, fuel oil FU futures main contract closing price, fuel oil FU futures index closing price, fuel oil FU futures near-month contract closing price, fuel oil FU near-month contract monthly spread, fuel oil FU futures main contract trading volume and open interest, fuel oil FU futures total trading volume and open interest, low-sulfur fuel oil LU futures main contract closing price, low-sulfur fuel oil LU futures index closing price, low-sulfur fuel oil LU futures near-month contract price, low-sulfur fuel oil LU futures near-month spread, low-sulfur fuel oil LU futures main contract trading volume and open interest, and low-sulfur fuel oil LU futures total trading volume and open interest [3]