Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings - Cotton: Neutral to bearish [2] - Sugar: Neutral [5] - Pulp: Neutral [7] 2. Core Views - Cotton: The international cotton supply and demand situation is expected to improve, but the short - term upward space of US cotton is limited. In China, the pressure of increased cotton production in Xinjiang is large, and the cotton price is under pressure [2]. - Sugar: The international raw sugar supply is strong, suppressing the price, but there is support at the bottom. In China, the short - term supply is sufficient [4]. - Pulp: The global supply pressure of pulp exists, and the domestic demand is weak. The pulp price is expected to continue to oscillate at a low level [6][7]. 3. Summary by Category Cotton - Market News and Key Data: On the futures side, the cotton 2601 contract closed at 13,350 yuan/ton, down 0.41%. On the spot side, the Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 14,942 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan/ton. In August 2025, China's cotton yarn imports increased year - on - year and month - on - month, and the import unit price decreased year - on - year [1]. - Market Analysis: The international cotton supply and demand situation is expected to improve, but the short - term upward space of US cotton is limited due to the slow export sales progress. In China, the pressure of increased cotton production in Xinjiang is large, and the purchase price of ginning factories is cautious [2]. - Strategy: Neutral to bearish. The expectation of increased production of new cotton suppresses the market, and the cotton price may continue to weaken [2]. Sugar - Market News and Key Data: On the futures side, the sugar 2601 contract closed at 5479 yuan/ton, up 0.02%. On the spot side, the sugar prices in Nanning, Guangxi and Kunming, Yunnan remained unchanged. In the 25/26 sugar - making period in Xinjiang, 3 sugar factories have started operation, and the sugar production is expected to be 700,000 tons [3]. - Market Analysis: The international raw sugar supply is strong, suppressing the price, but there is support at the bottom. In China, the short - term supply is sufficient due to poor sales in August and high imports [4]. - Strategy: Neutral. The fundamental driving force is downward, but there is cost support at the bottom, and the short - term downward space is limited [5]. Pulp - Market News and Key Data: On the futures side, the pulp 2511 contract closed at 4878 yuan/ton, down 2.75%. On the spot side, the prices of imported wood pulp showed a differentiated trend. The prices of some imported softwood pulp decreased, some imported hardwood pulp increased, and the prices of imported natural pulp and chemical mechanical pulp were stable [5]. - Market Analysis: Overseas pulp mills' price increase, production reduction and conversion plans have a certain impact on market sentiment, but the overall supply pressure still exists. Domestic demand is weak, and the downstream paper mills' raw material procurement is cautious [6]. - Strategy: Neutral. The fundamental situation of pulp has not improved significantly, and the pulp price is expected to continue to oscillate at a low level [7].
农产品日报：增产预期不断增强，郑棉延续下跌趋势-20250930
Hua Tai Qi Huo·2025-09-30 05:21