聚烯烃日报：油价下跌，聚烯烃成本支撑减弱-20250930

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. However, for L and PP, the unilateral strategy is neutral [4]. 2. Core Viewpoints - PE: The cost - side support weakens due to falling oil prices. The supply is increasing as more maintenance devices are restarting. Although the downstream demand has a slight improvement before the double - festivals, the follow - up is insufficient, and the demand is still weak, which restricts the upward space of PE. After the festivals, social inventory may accumulate [2]. - PP: The cost support is weak. The supply is expected to increase as the number of maintenance devices decreases. The demand is marginally improving but still recovering slowly, and the demand support is limited. The weak demand restricts the upward space of PP, and the low profit also limits its downward space [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market News and Key Data - Price and Basis: The closing price of the L main contract is 7181 yuan/ton (+22), and that of the PP main contract is 6903 yuan/ton (+10). The LL North China spot price is 7120 yuan/ton (-20), and the LL East China spot price is 7140 yuan/ton (+0). The PP East China spot price is 6750 yuan/ton (+0). The LL North China basis is -61 yuan/ton (-32), the LL East China basis is -41 yuan/ton (-22), and the PP East China basis is -153 yuan/ton (-10) [1]. - Upstream Supply: The PE operating rate is 81.8% (+1.5%), and the PP operating rate is 75.5% (+0.6%) [1]. - Production Profit: The PE oil - based production profit is -1.8 yuan/ton (-55.8), the PP oil - based production profit is -631.8 yuan/ton (-55.8), and the PDH - based PP production profit is -264.0 yuan/ton (-39.2) [1]. - Import and Export: The LL import profit is -56.7 yuan/ton (-1.9), the PP import profit is -532.6 yuan/ton (-1.9), and the PP export profit is 15.3 US dollars/ton (+0.2) [1]. - Downstream Demand: The PE downstream agricultural film operating rate is 32.9% (+6.1%), the PE downstream packaging film operating rate is 52.4% (+0.6%), the PP downstream plastic weaving operating rate is 43.9% (+0.0%), and the PP downstream BOPP film operating rate is 61.4% (+0.0%) [1]. 3.2 Market Analysis - PE: The cost - side support weakens as OPEC+ increases oil production in November, driving the oil price down. The supply is increasing as more maintenance devices restart. The demand has a slight improvement before the double - festivals, but the follow - up is insufficient, and the demand is still weak, which restricts the upward space of PE [2]. - PP: The cost support is weak due to the falling international oil price. The supply is expected to increase as the number of maintenance devices decreases. The demand is marginally improving but still recovering slowly, and the demand support is limited [3]. 3.3 Strategy - Unilateral: L and PP are neutral [4]. - Inter - period: L01 - L05 reverse spread; PP01 - PP05 reverse spread [4]. - Inter - variety: No strategy [4].