化工日报：临近假期，EG震荡运行-20250930

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral [3] - Inter - period: None [3] - Inter - variety: None [3] Core View - Near the holiday, EG fluctuates. The spot price of EG in the East China market is 4295 yuan/ton, with a change of - 5 yuan/ton (- 0.12%) from the previous trading day, and the basis is 67 yuan/ton. The production profit of ethylene - made EG is - 62 dollars/ton, and that of coal - made syngas EG is - 283 yuan/ton. The inventory data from different sources shows different trends. The overall supply and demand logic is that the domestic EG load is running at a high level, there are still many overseas supply losses, and there will be more arrivals during the National Day holiday. The demand is slightly boosted by pre - holiday stocking, but the increase in polyester load is limited. The near - term EG balance sheet has little contradiction, the main port inventory is expected to remain low, but there is great pressure to accumulate inventory in the fourth quarter, and the port inventory is expected to increase significantly after the holiday [1][2] Summary by Directory Price and Basis - The closing price of the EG main contract is 4224 yuan/ton (+ 11 yuan/ton, + 0.26% from the previous trading day), and the spot price of EG in the East China market is 4295 yuan/ton (- 5 yuan/ton, - 0.12% from the previous trading day). The EG East China spot basis (based on the 2509 contract) is 67 yuan/ton (a month - on - month increase of 6 yuan/ton) [1] Production Profit and Operating Rate - The production profit of ethylene - made EG is - 62 dollars/ton (a month - on - month increase of 0 dollars/ton), and the production profit of coal - made syngas EG is - 283 yuan/ton (a month - on - month increase of 13 yuan/ton) [1] International Spread - No specific data in the provided content, only mentions the chart of "ethylene glycol international spread: US FOB - China CFR" [17] Downstream Production and Sales and Operating Rate - Pre - holiday stocking has slightly boosted demand, and the production and sales of filaments have improved significantly, but the increase in polyester load is limited. Attention should be paid to the sustainability of demand recovery [2] Inventory Data - According to CCF data, the MEG inventory in the main ports of East China is 40.9 tons (a month - on - month decrease of 5.8 tons); according to Longzhong data, it is 40.0 tons (a month - on - month increase of 1.7 tons). The actual arrival at the main ports last week was 8.3 tons, and the port inventory remained stable with a slight accumulation. The planned arrival at the main ports in East China this week is 7.3 tons, and the planned arrival at the secondary ports is 2.3 tons [1]