现货供应超预期，豆粕维持震荡

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - The investment rating for the soybean meal and rapeseed meal sector is neutral [3] - The investment rating for the corn sector is cautiously bearish [5] 2. Core Views - For the soybean meal and rapeseed meal sector, the current new - season US soybeans are being harvested with a slight decline in the good - to - excellent rate and a decrease in planting area, leading to an expected reduction in overall output. However, due to the unclear outcome of Sino - US trade negotiations and China's reduced imports of US soybeans, the export progress of new - season US soybeans is slow, putting pressure on CBOT US soybean prices. Argentina's policy change may intensify export competition between North and South America, further impacting US soybean exports. As a result, both CBOT US soybeans and domestic soybean oil and meal prices are under pressure [2] - For the corn sector, in the domestic market, new - season corn in the Northeast and North China regions is continuously coming onto the market. The purchase price of new - season corn in the Northeast is declining, while in North China, the harvest progress is slowed by weather, and prices have slightly increased due to low inventories in deep - processing enterprises. As the supply increases in the future, traders are pessimistic about the market outlook and have a low willingness to store grain. The demand from deep - processing enterprises is low, and feed enterprises have relatively little inventory, mainly replenishing stocks as needed. Attention should be paid to downstream procurement attitudes and the volume of new - grain supply [4] 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Market News and Important Data for Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal - Futures: The closing price of the soybean meal 2601 contract was 2933 yuan/ton, a change of - 4 yuan/ton or - 0.14% from the previous day; the rapeseed meal 2601 contract was 2416 yuan/ton, a change of + 11 yuan/ton or + 0.46% [1] - Spot: In Tianjin, the soybean meal spot price was 2970 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a spot basis of M01 + 37, a change of + 4; in Jiangsu, it was 2880 yuan/ton, unchanged, with a spot basis of M01 - 53, a change of + 4; in Guangdong, it was 2900 yuan/ton, unchanged, with a spot basis of M01 - 33, a change of + 4. In Fujian, the rapeseed meal spot price was 2580 yuan/ton, unchanged, with a spot basis of RM01 + 164, a change of - 11 [1] - Market Information: As of Friday, the soybean sowing progress in Mato Grosso, Brazil, for the 2025/26 season reached 5.97%, much faster than the same period last year. For the week ending September 18, US soybean export sales net increased by 72.45 tons, with a market forecast of a net increase of 60 - 160 tons [1] 3.2. Market Analysis for Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal - The new - season US soybean harvest is underway, with a slight decline in the good - to - excellent rate and a decrease in planting area, resulting in an expected reduction in overall output. Uncertain Sino - US trade policies and China's reduced imports slow down US soybean exports, pressuring CBOT US soybean prices. Argentina's policy change may intensify export competition and impact US soybean exports. CBOT US soybeans and domestic soybean oil and meal prices are under pressure, and attention should be paid to China's imports from Argentina and Sino - US trade negotiations [2] 3.3. Market News and Important Data for Corn - Futures: The closing price of the corn 2511 contract was 2159 yuan/ton, a change of - 19 yuan/ton or - 0.87% from the previous day; the corn starch 2511 contract was 2483 yuan/ton, a change of + 3 yuan/ton or + 0.12% [3] - Spot: In Liaoning, the corn spot price was 2150 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a spot basis of C11 + 141, a change of + 19; in Jilin, the corn starch spot price was 2570 yuan/ton, unchanged, with a spot basis of CS11 + 87, a change of - 3 [3] - Market Information: The EU Commission's monthly report shows that the EU's corn production forecast for the 2025/26 season is lowered by 80 tons to 5680 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.7%, far lower than the initial forecast of 6500 tons. Due to the continuous drought in Southeast Europe in the summer of 2025, the corn yield per hectare is expected to be 6.88 tons, 1% lower than last month's forecast and 3% lower than the five - year average [3] 3.4. Market Analysis for Corn - Supply: New - season corn in the Northeast and North China regions is continuously coming onto the market. The purchase price of new - season corn in the Northeast is declining, while in North China, the harvest progress is slowed by weather, and prices have slightly increased due to low inventories in deep - processing enterprises. As the supply increases in the future, traders are pessimistic about the market outlook and have a low willingness to store grain [4] - Demand: The demand from deep - processing enterprises is low, and feed enterprises have relatively little inventory, mainly replenishing stocks as needed. Attention should be paid to downstream procurement attitudes and the volume of new - grain supply [4]