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化工日报：青岛港口库存环比继续下降-20250930
Hua Tai Qi Huo·2025-09-30 05:28
  1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for RU and NR is neutral [7]. - The investment rating for BR is neutral [7]. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For natural rubber, with the reduction of rainfall in domestic and overseas production areas, raw material prices are expected to decline, weakening cost - side support. As the domestic holiday approaches, downstream tire factories will enter a short - term maintenance period, and demand will decline. Overall, supply and demand are gradually becoming looser, and inventory depletion may slow down or even accumulate again. However, the current valuations of domestic RU and NR are low, and the downside space is limited after the news of a new round of state reserve sales is announced [7]. - For cis - butadiene rubber, upstream plants will still have maintenance in October, and the operating rate may first rise and then fall. The production volume will change little in the next two weeks. The overall operating rate this year is still at a high level compared to the same period last year, and the supply remains abundant. After the downstream raw material replenishment is completed, demand will remain stable. With the approaching of the National Day holiday, downstream tire factories will have a short - term shutdown and resume production after the holiday. It is expected that the downstream will continue to be in a peak season, and the supply and demand of cis - butadiene rubber will be booming [7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Data - Futures Prices: On the previous trading day, the closing price of the RU main contract was 15,375 yuan/ton, a change of - 95 yuan/ton from the previous day; the NR main contract was 12,430 yuan/ton, a change of - 5 yuan/ton; the BR main contract was 11,340 yuan/ton, a change of - 90 yuan/ton [1]. - Spot Prices: The price of Yunnan - produced whole latex in the Shanghai market was 14,550 yuan/ton, a change of - 100 yuan/ton from the previous day. The price of Thai mixed rubber in the Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 14,800 yuan/ton, a change of - 50 yuan/ton. The price of Thai 20 - grade standard rubber in the Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,850 US dollars/ton, a change of - 10 US dollars/ton. The price of Indonesian 20 - grade standard rubber in the Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,740 US dollars/ton, a change of - 10 US dollars/ton. The ex - factory price of BR9000 from PetroChina Qilu Petrochemical was 11,500 yuan/ton, a change of - 200 yuan/ton. The market price of BR9000 in Zhejiang Chuanhua was 11,350 yuan/ton, a change of - 50 yuan/ton [1]. Market Information - Import Data: In August 2025, China imported 664,000 tons of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex), a month - on - month increase of 4.73% and a year - on - year increase of 7.79%. From January to August 2025, China's cumulative imports of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex) reached 5.373 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 19.06% [2]. - Export Data: In the first eight months of 2025, China's rubber tire exports reached 650,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.1%; the export value was 114.2 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.6%. Among them, the export volume of new pneumatic rubber tires was 626,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.8%; the export value was 109.7 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.4%. In terms of the number of tires, the export volume was 47.86 billion, a year - on - year increase of 5.6%. From January to August, the export volume of automobile tires was 555,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.6%; the export value was 94.4 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.1% [2][3]. - Côte d'Ivoire Export Data: In the first eight months of 2025, the total rubber export volume of Côte d'Ivoire was 1.05 million tons, an increase of 14.4% compared to the same period in 2024. In August alone, the export volume increased by 14.8% year - on - year and decreased by 8.9% month - on - month [3]. - Automobile Market Data: In August 2025, the sales volume of China's heavy - truck market was about 84,000 units (wholesale basis, including exports and new energy vehicles), a slight month - on - month decrease of 1% and a year - on - year increase of about 35%. From January to August, the cumulative sales volume of China's heavy - truck market was about 708,000 units, a year - on - year increase of about 13%. From January to August, China's automobile production and sales reached 21.051 million and 21.128 million units respectively, a year - on - year increase of 12.7% and 12.6% respectively. Among them, the production and sales of new energy vehicles reached 9.625 million and 9.62 million units respectively, a year - on - year increase of 37.3% and 36.7% respectively, and the sales volume of new energy vehicles accounted for 45.5% of the total sales volume of new vehicles. In terms of exports, from January to August, automobile exports reached 4.292 million units, a year - on - year increase of 13.7%. Among them, new energy vehicle exports reached 1.532 million units, a year - on - year increase of 87.3% [4]. Market Analysis Natural Rubber - Spot and Spreads: On September 29, 2025, the RU basis was - 825 yuan/ton (- 5), the spread between the RU main contract and the mixed rubber was 575 yuan/ton (- 45), the import profit of smoked sheet rubber was - 3,258 yuan/ton (- 33.81), the NR basis was 721.00 yuan/ton (- 78.00); the price of whole latex was 14,550 yuan/ton (- 100), the price of mixed rubber was 14,800 yuan/ton (- 50), the price of 3L spot was 15,200 yuan/ton (+ 0). The STR20 was quoted at 1,850 US dollars/ton (- 10), the spread between whole latex and 3L was - 650 yuan/ton (- 100); the spread between mixed rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber was 3,000 yuan/ton (+ 250) [4]. - Raw Materials: The price of Thai smoked sheet was 58.61 Thai baht/kg (- 0.27), the price of Thai glue was 54.80 Thai baht/kg (+ 0.00), the price of Thai cup lump was 50.55 Thai baht/kg (- 0.50), and the difference between Thai glue and cup lump was 4.25 Thai baht/kg (+ 0.50) [5]. - Operating Rates: The operating rate of all - steel tires was 66.39% (+ 0.03%), and the operating rate of semi - steel tires was 72.64% (- 0.10%) [6]. - Inventories: The social inventory of natural rubber was 1,112,557 tons (- 122,953.00), the inventory of natural rubber at Qingdao Port was 461,188 tons (- 125,451), the RU futures inventory was 149,420 tons (- 5,500), and the NR futures inventory was 42,942 tons (- 1,611) [6]. Cis - Butadiene Rubber - Spot and Spreads: On September 29, 2025, the BR basis was - 40 yuan/ton (+ 40), the ex - factory price of butadiene from Sinopec was 9,000 yuan/ton (- 150), the price of BR9000 from Qilu Petrochemical was 11,500 yuan/ton (- 200), the price of BR9000 from Zhejiang Chuanhua was 11,350 yuan/ton (- 50), the price of private cis - butadiene rubber in Shandong was 11,200 yuan/ton (- 50), and the import profit of cis - butadiene rubber in Northeast Asia was - 1,749 yuan/ton (- 50) [6]. - Operating Rates: The operating rate of high - cis cis - butadiene rubber was 66.41% (- 3.31%) [6]. - Inventories: The inventory of cis - butadiene rubber traders was 5,700 tons (- 2,120), and the inventory of cis - butadiene rubber enterprises was 26,600 tons (+ 700) [6]. Strategy - RU and NR: Maintain a neutral rating. With the reduction of rainfall in domestic and overseas production areas, raw material prices are expected to decline, weakening cost - side support. As the domestic holiday approaches, downstream tire factories will enter a short - term maintenance period, and demand will decline. Overall, supply and demand are gradually becoming looser, and inventory depletion may slow down or even accumulate again. However, the current valuations of domestic RU and NR are low, and the downside space is limited after the news of a new round of state reserve sales is announced [7]. - BR: Maintain a neutral rating. Upstream plants will still have maintenance in October, and the operating rate may first rise and then fall. The production volume will change little in the next two weeks. The overall operating rate this year is still at a high level compared to the same period last year, and the supply remains abundant. After the downstream raw material replenishment is completed, demand will remain stable. With the approaching of the National Day holiday, downstream tire factories will have a short - term shutdown and resume production after the holiday. It is expected that the downstream will continue to be in a peak season, and the supply and demand of cis - butadiene rubber will be booming [7].