光大期货煤化工商品日报-20250930

Group 1: Investment Ratings - All three commodities (urea, soda ash, and glass) are rated as "Oscillating" [1] Group 2: Core Views - The urea market is expected to operate weakly and stably around the holiday. With high domestic supply and demand pressure and expected inventory accumulation, investors are advised to hold light or no positions during the holiday [1]. - The soda ash futures price is expected to continue a wide - range oscillating trend. Although some fundamental indicators have improved, market pessimism about future supply and demand and expected inventory accumulation during the holiday may lead to potential price cuts by alkali plants. Light or no positions are recommended for the holiday [1]. - The glass futures price is expected to be relatively firm. Despite expected inventory accumulation during the holiday due to potential demand slowdown, positive macro - policies may boost market sentiment [1]. Group 3: Market Information Summary Urea - On September 29, the urea futures warehouse receipts were 7,211, a decrease of 30 from the previous trading day, with 114 valid forecasts. The daily production was 196,800 tons, a decrease of 1,900 tons from the previous day but an increase of 5,700 tons compared to the same period last year. The开工 rate was 84.12%, 1.59 percentage points lower than the same period last year. The spot prices in some areas were flat or slightly decreased [4]. Soda Ash - On September 29, the soda ash futures warehouse receipts were 6,352, an increase of 600 from the previous trading day, and there were 3,096 valid forecasts. The daily开工 rate was 89.14%, up from 88.58% the previous day. The spot prices varied by region [6][7]. Glass - On September 29, the glass futures warehouse receipts remained unchanged. The market average price was 1,250 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The daily production was 161,300 tons, an increase of 600 tons from the previous day [7]. Group 4: Chart Analysis - The report includes multiple charts showing the closing prices, basis, trading volume, and positions of urea, soda ash, and glass futures, as well as the price differences between different contracts and the price differences between related commodities [9][11][13][16][18][21]