10合约聚焦节后下半月实际揽货价格，特朗普公布加沙停火

Report Investment Rating No information regarding the industry investment rating is provided in the given content. Core Viewpoints - The valuation of the October contract is becoming clearer, and attention should be paid to the actual cargo - booking prices in the second half of the month after the holiday. The settlement price of the October contract is the arithmetic average of SCFIS on October 13th, 20th, and 27th. There is uncertainty about the actual implementation of price increases in the second half of October [4]. - The December contract is still far from delivery, and trading mainly focuses on the rhythm. Attention should be paid to the actual implementation of price increases in November. There are risks such as the bottom of the current freight rate decline and weak demand on the US route. The trading rhythm involves first trading the price - increase expectation, then the actual implementation of the price - increase notice, and repeating this process until delivery [6]. - The strategy suggests going short on the 10 - contract on rallies and expecting the 12 - contract to be oscillating strongly. There is currently no arbitrage strategy [8]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Analysis - Online Quotations: Different shipping companies have different price quotations and price - increase notices. For example, Maersk's WEEK42 quotation for Shanghai - Rotterdam has risen to 1800 US dollars/FEU, HPL - SPOT's price in the second half of October is 600 US dollars/FEU higher than that in the first half, and MSC has issued a price - increase notice for the second half of October [1]. - Geopolitical Situation: US President Trump announced a 20 - point plan to end the conflict between Israel and Hamas. If both sides accept, the two - year conflict will end immediately, and Israel will withdraw troops in stages [2]. - Container Ship Capacity: In October, the monthly average weekly capacity to European basic ports from China is 263,900 TEU, with 17 blank sailings. In November, the monthly average weekly capacity is 304,000 TEU, with 3 blank sailings and 3 TBNs [3]. 2. Futures Contracts - October Contract: The central value of the freight rate in the first half of October has continued to decline to around 1400 US dollars/FEU. The SCFIS on October 13th is expected to be around 1000 points, and the SCFIS on October 20th is estimated to be similar. The uncertainty lies in the actual implementation of price increases in the second half of October. Optimistically, if the settlement price in the last week increases by 500 US dollars/FEU, the final three - phase settlement price corresponds to a spot price of approximately 1400/1500/1900 US dollars/FEU, equivalent to about 1150 - 1200 points on the SCFIS; if the price - support fails, the final settlement price may be between 1000 - 1050 points [4][5]. - December Contract: With the approach of Western holidays in the fourth quarter, shipping volume remains high, and shipping companies will adjust supply to keep freight rates high. However, there are risks such as weak US demand. The trading rhythm first involves the price - increase expectation and then the actual implementation of the price - increase notice [6]. 3. Futures and Spot Prices - Futures Prices: As of September 29, 2025, the total open interest of all contracts of the container shipping index for the European route is 69,419 lots, and the daily trading volume is 33,930 lots. The closing prices of different contracts are provided, such as EC2602 at 1667.00, EC2604 at 1253.00, etc. [7]. - Spot Prices: On September 26, 2025, the SCFI for Shanghai - Europe is 971 US dollars/TEU, for Shanghai - US West is 1460 US dollars/FEU, and for Shanghai - US East is 22385 US dollars/FEU. On September 15, 2025, the SCFIS for Shanghai - Europe is 1120.49 points, and for Shanghai - US West is 921.25 points [7]. 4. Container Ship Capacity Supply - In 2025, it is still a major year for container ship deliveries. As of September 28, 2025, 201 container ships have been delivered, with a total capacity of 1.6 million TEU. Among them, 63 ships with a capacity of 12,000 - 16,999 TEU have been delivered, with a total capacity of 948,300 TEU, and 8 ships with a capacity of over 17,000 TEU have been delivered, with a total capacity of 176,880 TEU [7]. 5. Strategy - Unilateral Strategy: Go short on the 10 - contract on rallies and expect the 12 - contract to be oscillating strongly [8]. - Arbitrage Strategy: There is currently no arbitrage strategy [8].