新世纪期货交易提示（2025-9-30）-20250930

Group 1: Black Industry - Investment Rating: Adjustment - Core View: After the National Day, the trading focus will gradually shift to reality. The supply - demand patterns of iron ore, coal - coke, and steel products face challenges, while glass has short - term sentiment - driven fluctuations and long - term industry adjustment pressures [2] - Directory Summary: - Iron Ore: Overseas supply is rising, and although demand is currently okay, the supply - demand pattern is weakening. The main iron ore futures price has declined from its high. The 2601 contract is in high - level adjustment [2] - Coal - Coke: Coal supply is abundant, and the difficulty of price support for coking coal will increase. Coke price hikes are expected to be implemented, and the short - term supply - demand contradiction is not obvious. The coke market follows coking coal, and attention should be paid to anti - involution policies [2] - Rolled Steel and Rebar: The supply - demand pattern of rebar is average, with weak downstream performance. The steel price is under pressure again. To reach the normal seasonal inventory level, production needs to decline by about 10000 tons. The 2601 contract is in weak shock operation [2] - Glass: The industry was called to raise prices, which may stimulate pre - holiday restocking. In the long run, the real estate industry is in adjustment. Attention should be paid to production and policy changes during the holiday [2] Group 2: Financial Industry - Investment Rating: Various (including shock, rebound, etc.) - Core View: The market is affected by policies and economic data. The stock index market has different trends, and the bond market is under pressure. Gold shows a relatively strong shock trend [3][4] - Directory Summary: - Stock Index Futures/Options: The stock index market has different trends. The Politburo meeting emphasized high - quality development during the "15th Five - Year Plan" period. The new policy financial tools may boost investment. It is recommended to control risk preferences [3][4] - Treasury Bonds: The yield of 10 - year treasury bonds has risen, and the market interest rate has fluctuated. Treasury bond bulls should hold lightly [4] - Gold: The pricing mechanism of gold is changing. Factors such as central bank gold purchases, currency credit issues, and geopolitical risks support the price. It is expected to be in a relatively strong shock [4] Group 3: Light Industry - Investment Rating: Various (including range shock, consolidation, etc.) - Core View: The supply - demand situations of different products in the light industry are different, and the price trends are also diverse [5] - Directory Summary: - Logs: The supply is tightening, the cost support is increasing, and the inventory is decreasing. It is expected to be in range shock [5] - Pulp: The cost support is increasing, but the demand is not strong. It is expected to be in bottom - level consolidation [5] - Offset Paper: The production is relatively stable, the demand is expected to improve, but the profit is low. It is expected to be in shock [5] Group 4: Oil and Fat Industry - Investment Rating: Wide - range shock, shock - bearish - Core View: The supply - demand relationships of oils and fats are complex, affected by factors such as production, policy, and inventory. The supply of meal products is relatively loose [5] - Directory Summary: - Oils: The supply pressure of palm oil is increasing, but there are also factors such as production reduction and policy changes. The supply of domestic soybean oil is abundant. It is expected that oils will be in wide - range shock [5] - Meal Products: The supply of domestic soybean meal is loose, and the export of US soybeans is weak. It is expected that meal products will be in shock - bearish trend [5] Group 5: Agricultural Products - Investment Rating: Shock - strong, shock - weak - Core View: The supply of live pigs is abundant, and the demand has short - term fluctuations. The price is expected to be in short - term weak shock [6] - Directory Summary: - Live Pigs: The average trading weight is declining, the demand for pre - holiday stocking is increasing, but the sales pressure is also rising. The price is expected to be in short - term weak shock [6] Group 6: Soft Commodities and Polyester Industry - Investment Rating: Various (including shock, wait - and - see, etc.) - Core View: The supply - demand situations of soft commodities and polyester products are complex, and the price trends are different [7][8] - Directory Summary: - Rubber: The supply is affected by weather, the demand is improving, and the inventory is decreasing. The price is expected to be in wide - range shock [8] - PX: There are potential supply risks, and the supply - demand is decreasing. The price follows oil prices [8] - PTA: The cost support may weaken, and the supply - demand is marginally weakening. The price follows cost fluctuations [8] - MEG: The supply pressure is increasing, and the short - term price is affected by cost fluctuations [8] - PR: The market trading is expected to be dull, and the price is expected to be stable [8] - PF: The cost support may weaken, and the market may have narrow - range consolidation [8]