光大期货农产品日报-20250930

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Corn: Oscillating weakly [1] - Soybean Meal: Oscillating [1] - Oils: Oscillating [1] - Eggs: Oscillating [1] - Pigs: Oscillating weakly [2] Core Views of the Report - Corn prices are expected to remain weak in the medium - term due to increasing new - grain supply after the National Day holiday, slow harvest progress in North China affected by weather, and low pre - holiday purchasing enthusiasm in the sales area [1]. - Soybean meal prices are affected by the harvest progress in the US and Brazil, with sufficient domestic supply during the National Day holiday, so it is recommended to clear positions for the holiday [1]. - Oil prices are affected by factors such as export data and inventory changes. With sufficient domestic inventory after the festival, it is suggested to clear positions for the holiday [1]. - Egg prices are under short - term supply pressure, but the expectation of eliminating excess capacity supports the market. It is recommended to hold a light or empty position during the holiday and pay attention to demand and capacity data [1]. - Pig prices continue to decline due to abundant supply. Although the pre - holiday demand increases, the supply still suppresses the price. It is recommended to hold a light or empty position and focus on consumption and capacity changes [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Research Views - Corn: On Monday, the November corn contract opened flat and closed lower. New - season corn in Liaoning and eastern Heilongjiang has a good supply, and prices are falling. After the National Day, more corn will be on the market, and prices are hard to improve in the short - term. North China's prices are stable with minor adjustments, and the sales area's prices are mainly stable. Technically, positions are decreasing before the holiday, and the medium - term outlook is weak [1]. - Soybean Meal: On Monday, CBOT soybeans fell due to expanded harvest and concerns about export demand. US soybean inspection was 59.4 tons, and the harvest rate was 19%, with a good rate of 62%. Brazil's soybean sowing is going well. Domestically, prices are weakly oscillating, and it is recommended to clear positions for the holiday [1]. - Oils: On Monday, BMD palm oil first rose and then fell, affected by weak soybean oil. Malaysian palm oil exports from September 1 - 25 increased by 11.3% - 12.9% month - on - month. Domestic palm oil has mixed factors, soybean oil lacks upward momentum, and rapeseed oil closed lower with reduced positions. It is recommended to clear positions for the holiday [1]. - Eggs: On Monday, egg futures weakened. Spot prices were mostly stable with some declines. Short - term supply pressures the price, but the expectation of eliminating excess capacity supports the market. It is recommended to hold a light or empty position during the holiday [1]. - Pigs: On Monday, pig futures continued to decline. Spot prices are weak due to abundant supply. The decline in the number of fertile sows in August has not yet affected the short - term supply. It is recommended to hold a light or empty position and pay attention to consumption and capacity changes [2]. Market Information - Palm Oil: Different institutions' data on Malaysian palm oil exports from September 1 - 20 vary. The SGS data shows a 16.1% decrease compared to the same period last month, while Amspec shows an 8.3% increase. The SPPOMA data indicates a 7.89% decrease in production from September 1 - 20 compared to the same period last month [2][3]. - Pigs: The national pig - feed price ratio this week is 5.12, a 1.54% month - on - month decrease. The expected profit per pig in the future is - 106.13 yuan. The pig price is expected to continue to decline next week [3]. - Agricultural Products Wholesale Prices: On September 22, the "Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index" and the "Vegetable Basket" product wholesale price index increased. The average prices of pork, eggs, and white - striped chickens in the national agricultural product wholesale market also increased compared to last Friday [3]. Variety Spreads - Contract Spreads: Charts show the 1 - 5 spreads of corn, corn starch, soybeans, soybean meal, eggs, and pigs [5][6][10]. - Contract Basis: Charts show the basis of corn, corn starch, soybeans, soybean meal, eggs, and pigs [13][16][23]