甲醇日报：西北价格仍偏强-20250930

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The port experienced a decent de - stocking as the arrival was lower than expected and downstream pre - holiday pick - up was good, but the absolute inventory is still high. The future change mainly depends on the announcement of Iran's winter inspection plan. The port's lower support relies on the window for re - flowing to the inland. - In the inland, the northwest prices remain strong. With mainstream CTO factories continuing to purchase at the beginning of the week and low inventory, the inland is stronger than the port. Traditional downstream has mixed performances, and coal - based methanol production restart is slow, waiting for a further increase in October [2][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. Methanol Basis & Inter - period Structure - The report presents various charts about methanol basis including methanol Taicang basis and methanol main contract, basis of methanol in different regions against the main futures, and inter - period spreads such as MA2601 - MA2605, MA2605 - MA2609, and MA2609 - MA2601 [7][23]. II. Methanol Production Profit, MTO Profit, Import Profit - It shows charts related to Inner Mongolia coal - based methanol production profit, East China MTO profit (PP&EG type), and import spreads such as Taicang methanol - CFR China, CFR Southeast Asia - CFR China, FOB US Gulf - CFR China, and FOB Rotterdam - CFR China [27][36]. III. Methanol Start - up, Inventory - Charts display methanol port total inventory, MTO/P start - up rate (including integrated), inland factory sample inventory, and China methanol start - up rate (including integrated). The port total inventory is 1492190 tons (- 65580), and the inland factory inventory is 319940 tons (- 20540) [2][38]. IV. Regional Price Difference - The report provides data on regional price differences such as Lubei - Northwest - 280, Taicang - Inner Mongolia - 550, Taicang - Lunan - 250, etc. For example, the Lubei - Northwest - 280 spread is - 43 yuan/ton (- 5) [2][42]. V. Traditional Downstream Profit - Charts show the production gross margins of traditional downstream products including Shandong formaldehyde, Jiangsu acetic acid, Shandong MTBE isomerization etherification, and Henan dimethyl ether [52][61]. 4. Strategy - Unilateral: No strategy provided. - Inter - period: Go long on MA2601 - MA2605 when the spread is low. - Cross - variety: Short the spread of PP01 - 3MA01 when it is high [4].