Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings provided in the report Group 2: Core Views - Cotton is expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend in the short - term. ICE US cotton dropped 1.51% to 65.4 cents/pound, CF601 fell 0.82% to 13350 yuan/ton, and the main contract positions decreased by 4260 to 530,600 hands. The pressure of new cotton's concentrated and large - scale listing and limited short - term downstream digestion ability are the main factors, but there are also some supporting factors, and the futures price has reached a phased low level. Attention should be paid to the seed cotton purchase situation [1]. - Sugar is expected to be in a volatile state. Spot sugar prices in some regions have adjusted, and raw sugar prices are boosted by the impact of crude oil on ethanol prices. The market focuses on Brazil's production progress, and after the holiday, it will focus on Inner Mongolia's production progress and September import data. It is recommended to hold light positions during the holiday [1]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Research Views - Cotton: ICE US cotton and CF601 declined, with the main contract positions decreasing. The international market is affected by macro - level disturbances, and the domestic market is under pressure from new cotton listing. The short - term trend is weak and volatile [1]. - Sugar: Spot sugar prices in different regions have different trends, raw sugar is affected by crude oil, and the market focuses on production and import data. The futures market is recommended to hold light positions during the holiday [1]. 2. Daily Data Monitoring - Cotton: The 1 - 5 contract spread is - 10 yuan, down 10 yuan; the main contract basis in Xinjiang is 1603 yuan, down 35 yuan; the spot price in Xinjiang is 14942 yuan, down 13 yuan, and the national spot price is 14953 yuan, down 48 yuan [2]. - Sugar: The 1 - 5 contract spread is 41 yuan, up 2 yuan; the main contract basis in Nanning is 366 yuan, down 11 yuan; the spot price in Nanning is 5780 yuan, unchanged, and in Liuzhou is 5845 yuan, down 10 yuan [2]. 3. Market Information - Cotton: On September 29, the number of cotton futures warehouse receipts decreased by 224 to 3173, with 22 valid forecasts. The arrival prices of cotton in different regions on September 19 are different. On September 29, the yarn comprehensive load decreased by 0.1 to 50.2, the inventory remained flat at 25.8, the short - fiber cloth comprehensive load decreased by 0.1 to 52.4, and the inventory increased by 0.1 to 29.1 [3]. - Sugar: On September 29, the sugar spot price in Nanning remained unchanged at 5780 yuan/ton, and in Liuzhou decreased by 10 yuan to 5845 yuan/ton. The number of sugar futures warehouse receipts decreased by 483 to 8981, with 0 valid forecasts [3][4]. 4. Chart Analysis - Multiple charts are provided, including those related to cotton's main contract closing price, basis, 1 - 5 spread, 1% tariff quota internal - external spread, warehouse receipts and effective forecasts, and China cotton price index, as well as sugar's main contract closing price, basis, 1 - 5 spread, and warehouse receipts and effective forecasts [6][8][9][10][11][12][14][15][17]
光大期货软商品日报-20250930
Guang Da Qi Huo·2025-09-30 05:43