工业硅：供需转弱，多晶硅：关注政策预期

Report Date - The report is dated September 30, 2025 [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - Not provided Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Futures Market - Si2511 closing price is 8,610 yuan/ton, with a change of -350 yuan compared to T-1; trading volume is 392,702 lots, down 77,321 lots from T-1; open interest is 206,977 lots, a decrease of 34,235 lots from T-1 [2] - PS2511 closing price is 51,280 yuan/ton, down 185 yuan from T-1; trading volume is 158,112 lots, a decrease of 44,489 lots from T-1; open interest is 93,768 lots, down 7,718 lots from T-1 [2] Basis - Industrial silicon spot premium (against East China Si5530) is +840 yuan/ton, up from 300 yuan/ton at T-1 [2] - Polysilicon spot premium (against N-type recycled feedstock) is +282 yuan/ton, down from -100 yuan/ton at T-1 [2] Price - Xinjiang 99 silicon price is 8,950 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan from T-1 [2] - Polysilicon - N-type recycled feedstock price is 52,550 yuan/ton, unchanged from T-1 [2] Profit - Silicon plant profit (Xinjiang new standard 553) is -2,309.5 yuan/ton, down 123.5 yuan from T-1 [2] - Polysilicon enterprise profit is -14.3 yuan/kg, up 0.4 yuan from T-1 [2] Inventory - Industrial silicon - social inventory (including warehouse receipt inventory) is 54.3 million tons [2] - Polysilicon - manufacturer inventory is 22.6 million tons [2] Raw Material Cost - Xinjiang silicon ore price is 320 yuan/ton, unchanged from T-1 [2] - Xinjiang washed coking coal price is 1,725 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan from T-1 [2] Macro and Industry News - On September 25, the Party Secretary and Director of the State - owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of the State Council, Zhang Yuzhuo, chaired a symposium on the economic operation of some state - owned enterprises, focusing on stabilizing electricity and coal prices and preventing "involution - style" vicious competition [4]