双节长假在即，做好节前风险管理

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints - It is necessary to do a good job in pre - holiday risk management. During the National Day holiday, there are risks of pre - holiday adjustments in the stock index and pre - holiday depreciation of the RMB exchange rate, while there are opportunities in certain commodity sectors after the holiday. The domestic situation shows a greater gap between strong expectations and weak reality, and attention should be paid to post - holiday policy expectations and the correction of the current off - peak season expectation. The inflation outlook in the US is clearer, and the Fed has restarted the interest rate cut cycle. Different commodity sectors have different characteristics and investment opportunities [1]. - For commodities and stock index futures, it is recommended to allocate industrial products and precious metals on dips [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - Holiday Risk and Policy Expectations: From October 1st to 8th is the National Day holiday in China, with 6 overseas trading days. Historically, the stock index may adjust before the holiday and rise after it, and the RMB exchange rate may depreciate before the holiday and recover after it. After the holiday, there may be opportunities in commodity sectors such as coking coal, steel ore, and non - metallic building materials. The domestic economic pressure increased marginally in August, with weak industrial, investment, and consumption data, and increased external tariff pressure. Recently, the government has frequently mentioned pro - growth policies. The central bank also proposed to strengthen monetary policy regulation. Six departments issued a steady - growth plan for the machinery industry, aiming for an average annual revenue growth rate of about 3.5% from 2025 - 2026. The scale of new policy - based financial instruments is 500 billion yuan [1]. - US Economic Situation: In August, the US ISM manufacturing index contracted for the sixth consecutive month, the new order improved, and the price index declined again. The CPI increased year - on - year, the PPI growth slowed down, and the new non - farm employment and unemployment rate were worse than expected, supporting the Fed's interest rate cut. The retail sales and new home sales increased. The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points, and the federal funds rate target range is now 4.00% - 4.25%. The risk of a US government shutdown has increased, and the US has imposed additional tariffs [1]. - Commodity Analysis: The black and new energy metal sectors are most sensitive to the domestic supply - side; precious metals and agricultural products can be concerned due to overseas inflation expectations. The black sector is still dragged down by downstream demand expectations, and the "anti - involution" situation should be focused on. The long - term supply limitation in the non - ferrous sector has not been alleviated, but the marginal supply has increased recently. The energy supply is expected to be relatively loose in the medium - term. In the chemical industry, the "anti - involution" space of some varieties is worthy of attention. Agricultural products are driven by tariffs and inflation expectations in the short - term. Precious metals, especially gold, are expected to continue to strengthen [1]. Strategy - Allocate industrial products and precious metals on dips for commodities and stock index futures [2]. To - do News - The six - department plan aims for the machinery industry to achieve an average annual revenue growth rate of about 3.5% from 2025 - 2026 and break through 10 trillion yuan in revenue. The NDRC will continue to implement macro - policies. The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee will be held from October 20th to 23rd. On September 29th, the A - share market rose, and the financial stocks such as securities firms exploded. The risk of a US government shutdown is high, and the EU will resume sanctions on Iran. Spot gold reached a new high, standing at $3,820 per ounce with a 1.6% intraday increase [4]. Macro - economy No detailed analysis provided, only some relevant charts are mentioned, including the Citi Economic Surprise Index, 30 - city commercial housing transaction area, etc. [5][7][10] Interest Rates No detailed analysis provided, only some relevant charts are mentioned, including the 10Y and 2Y China - US Treasury bond spreads, the US dollar exchange rate, etc. [5][14][16]