黑色商品日报（2025年9月30日）-20250930

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The steel market, including rebar and hot - rolled coils, shows signs of weak consolidation. Rebar inventories have decreased, and the implementation of new policy financial tools may support market sentiment. However, the short - term rebar futures market is expected to remain weak [1]. - The iron ore market is expected to be volatile. Although iron ore prices have declined, iron ore demand, as indicated by increasing iron - water production, is rising, while supply shows mixed trends [1]. - The coking coal and coke markets are likely to experience wide - range fluctuations. The coking coal market is affected by pre - holiday production adjustments and downstream inventory replenishment, and the coke market is influenced by cost increases and demand changes [1]. - The manganese silicon and silicon iron markets are expected to be weakly volatile. Both markets face challenges such as high supply, limited demand, and increasing production costs [1][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - Steel: The rebar futures contract 2601 closed at 3097 yuan/ton, down 0.0.55% from the previous trading day, with a decrease in positions. Spot prices were stable, and the national building materials inventory decreased by 5.1% week - on - week. The hot - rolled coil inventory also declined. The market is expected to be weakly consolidated [1]. - Iron Ore: The main iron ore futures contract i2601 closed at 784 yuan/ton, down 0.76%. Australian shipments increased slightly, Brazilian shipments decreased steadily, and other countries' shipments increased. Iron - water production rose, and the market is expected to be volatile [1]. - Coking Coal: The coking coal futures contract 2601 closed at 1154 yuan/ton, down 3.55%. Some coal mines have scheduled holiday maintenance, and downstream inventory replenishment is nearing completion. The market is expected to fluctuate widely [1]. - Coke: The coke futures contract 2601 closed at 1647 yuan/ton, down 2.69%. Some steel mills have accepted the first round of coke price increases. Coke supply may decrease due to cost pressure, and the market is expected to fluctuate widely [1]. - Manganese Silicon: The manganese silicon futures price weakened, closing at 5820 yuan/ton, down 0.78%. Supply remains relatively high, demand is limited, and production costs are increasing. The market is expected to be weakly volatile [1]. - Silicon Iron: The silicon iron futures price weakened, closing at 5610 yuan/ton, down 1.23%. Supply is high, demand is limited, and production costs are rising. The market is expected to be weakly volatile [3]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - Contract Spreads: The spreads of various contracts, such as 1 - 5 months and 5 - 10 months for different commodities, showed different changes. For example, the 1 - 5 month spread of rebar was - 58.0, down 1.0 [3]. - Basis: The basis of different contracts also changed. For instance, the basis of the 01 rebar contract was 143.0, down 3.0 [3]. - Spot Prices: Spot prices of different commodities in different regions changed. For example, the Shanghai spot price of rebar was 3240.0, down 10.0 [3]. - Profits and Price Ratios: The report also monitored profits (such as rebar's盘面利润, long - process profit, and short - process profit) and price ratios (such as the coil - rebar ratio, rebar - iron ore ratio, etc.) [3]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - Main Contract Prices: The report presented the historical closing prices of the main contracts of rebar, hot - rolled coils, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and silicon iron from 2020 to 2025 [5][7][8][10][14]. - Main Contract Basis: The historical basis of the main contracts of various commodities was shown, including rebar, hot - rolled coils, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and silicon iron [16][18][21][23]. - Inter - period Contract Spreads: The historical spreads of different inter - period contracts (such as 10 - 01, 01 - 05, 05 - 09) of various commodities were presented [25][28][29][30][31][33][34][35][37][39]. - Inter - commodity Contract Spreads: The historical spreads of different inter - commodity contracts (such as the coil - rebar ratio, rebar - iron ore ratio, etc.) were shown [41][42][43][44]. - Rebar Profits: The historical profits of rebar (盘面利润, long - process profit, and short - process profit) from 2020 to 2025 were presented [46][47][49]. 3.4 Black Research Team Members Introduction - The black research team of Everbright Futures includes Qiu Yuecheng, Zhang Xiaojin, Liu Xi, and Zhang Chunjie, each with their own professional backgrounds and qualifications [51][52].