能源化工周报：供应压力加剧-20250930

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The ethylene glycol (MEG) price showed a weak trend this week due to weaker - than - expected demand and increased supply from new device launches. The supply - side pressure will continue to increase, and the supply - demand structure is expected to weaken, leading to a downward - trending market price. - Next week, the cost side may see oil prices fluctuate due to geopolitical factors and cooling expectations. The supply side will face greater pressure as more capacity is set to restart than to be under maintenance in October. The demand side is expected to have a light sales performance during and after the holiday. Port inventory is likely to rise slightly in the short term. - Overall, MEG is expected to trade in the range of 4,150 - 4,300 yuan/ton, and it is advisable to stay on the sidelines [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Main View - This week, MEG prices were weak. The reasons were weaker - than - expected demand and new device launches. In September, the downstream polyester and weaving industries had a slow start - up speed. There are still multiple new devices planned for trial runs and some long - shut - down devices are set to restart, increasing supply - side pressure. - Next week, on the cost side, geopolitical disturbances may boost oil prices, but cooling expectations could lead to a fluctuating oil price. On the supply side, more capacity will restart than be under maintenance in October. On the demand side, a 1.1 - million - ton polyester device in South China is restarting and ramping up, with no other major devices planned for restart or maintenance. Some downstream industries plan to reduce their loads during the holiday. In terms of port inventory, imports are expected to be concentrated around the National Day, and port shipments will decline during the holiday, so short - term port inventory may rise slightly. - MEG is expected to trade in the range of 4,150 - 4,300 yuan/ton, and it is recommended to stay on the sidelines [6]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - Futures Market: New device launches suppressed the futures market. This week, the trading volume was 544,000 lots, and the open interest was 326,000 lots (a decrease of 31,000 lots). On September 29, the closing price of the MEG main contract was 4,224 yuan/ton, a decrease of 16 yuan/ton from September 22, with a change of - 0.38%. The settlement price on September 29 was 4,225 yuan/ton, a decrease of 24 yuan/ton from September 22, with a change of - 0.56% [8][11][13]. - Spot Market: The high - end spot price was 4,363 yuan/ton on September 22, and the low - end was 4,270 yuan/ton on September 23. In different regions, prices in Fujian, Zhangjiagang, and Dongguan decreased by 31 yuan/ton, 61.8 yuan/ton, and 31 yuan/ton respectively. The foreign - market price was 510.1 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 5 US dollars/ton. The average basis this week was 81.25 yuan/ton, compared with 100 yuan/ton last week. The domestic and foreign markets of MEG remained inverted, with a spread of 85 - 110 US dollars/ton [15]. 3.3 MEG Device, Inventory, and Production Profit - Device Operation: From September 24 - 29, the comprehensive MEG operating rate was 69.98%, compared with 70.80% from September 17 - 23. The operating rates of petroleum - based, coal - based, and methanol - based production were 74.39%, 63.49%, and 62.43% respectively. During the week, the Zhonghai Shell device returned to normal after a short - term load fluctuation due to an upstream device failure, and the Fujian United and Sanjiang devices adjusted their loads slightly [19][22][24]. - Production Profit: The price of thermal coal increased slightly, while the MEG spot price continued to weaken. This week, the profit of coal - based MEG was further compressed. The current profits of MTO, coal - based, and ethylene - based production were - 1,532.58 yuan/ton, 295.13 yuan/ton, and - 128.15 US dollars/ton respectively, compared with - 1,495.10 yuan/ton, 354.69 yuan/ton, and - 139 US dollars/ton in the previous period [31][33]. - Port Inventory: There will be many foreign - market arrivals during the holiday, and large ships from Canada and Saudi Arabia will arrive at the port in a concentrated manner. It is expected that the MEG port inventory will increase significantly after the holiday. As of September 25, the MEG port inventory was 398,500 tons, an increase of 29,300 tons from the previous period, with a month - on - month change of 8.53%. Among them, the inventory in Zhangjiagang, Jiangyin, Taicang, Ningbo, Shanghai, and Changshu changed by 14,300 tons, - 2,000 tons, 10,000 tons, 11,000 tons, and - 4,000 tons respectively [35][37]. 3.4 Fundamental Analysis - Cost Side: The slow progress of the Iran nuclear negotiations poses potential support to the oil market due to geopolitical and supply risks [43]. - Supply and Demand of Downstream Products: - The average weekly load of polyester factories was 88.35%, and that of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms was 68.49%. The market average prices of semi - bright POY150D/48F, DTY150D/48F, and FDY150D/96F decreased by 1.63%, 1.26%, and 2.23% respectively. The average price of polyester staple fiber in the East China market decreased by 0.82%, and the average price of polyester bottle chips in the East China region decreased by 0.84%. - As the long holiday approaches, the sentiment of the polyester downstream has changed, leading to an increase in procurement and polyester sales. From September 22 - 28, the average weekly polyester sales were estimated to be over 70%. - Due to polyester promotions, downstream enterprises stocked up, and the inventory of polyester filament decreased this week. As of September 25, the average inventory days of POY, FDY, and DTY were 18.80 days, 25.70 days, and 29.50 days respectively. The inventory days of polyester staple fiber remained stable, and the inventory days of polyester chips decreased by 0.69 days [47][56][60].