Fo Shan Jin Kong Qi Huo·2025-09-30 07:26Report Title - Carbonate Lithium Quarterly Report for Q4 [1] Report Date - September 30, 2025 [2] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Views - In 2025, the global lithium resource market will see a simultaneous increase in supply and demand. The price of lithium carbonate will fluctuate around the high - cost curve, with an expected core range of 60,000 - 85,000 yuan/ton [10]. - The cost curve of lithium resources will shift downward, with the 90%/80% capacity dividing lines corresponding to costs of 63,000/56,000 yuan/ton LCE respectively [10]. - The demand for new - energy vehicles and energy storage remains promising, with expected global electric vehicle sales to reach 22.2 million units, a year - on - year increase of 22%, and domestic sales to reach 16.5 million units, a year - on - year increase of 28% [10]. Summary by Directory 01 Market Review - In the first half of the year, the price of lithium carbonate dropped by 22% due to supply - demand imbalance and cost reduction. Since the third quarter, it first rose by up to 45% under the influence of anti - involution policies and the suspension of Jiuxiaowo Mine, then fell back to an 18.73% increase [13]. 02 Supply Analysis Global Lithium Mines - The global primary lithium ore supply is expected to reach 1.66 million tons of LCE in 2025, a year - on - year increase of 22.26%. The supply growth rate has slowed down slightly due to factors such as the suspension of Jiuxiaowo Mine in China, the delay of some South American salt - lake capacity construction, and the reduction or suspension of high - cost projects in Australia [22]. Australian Lithium Mines - Australian lithium mine supply will maintain a steady growth of 12.2%. The production of major mines is expected to increase, and the cash - cost guidance of major mines has been lowered [23][25]. African Lithium Mines - African lithium mine output will maintain a high growth rate. In 2025, the supply is expected to reach 224,000 tons of LCE, a year - on - year increase of 78%. Future cost - reduction potential is large [28]. South American Salt Lakes - South American salt - lake lithium resource supply is expected to reach 440,000 tons (in terms of LCE) in 2025, a year - on - year increase of 20.4%. New projects will gradually ramp up production [31]. Chinese Lithium Mines - The growth rate of Chinese lithium mines has been revised down to 10.62% due to the suspension of Jiuxiaowo Mine. The production of lithium mica and salt - lake lithium has decreased, while the production of lithium spodumene has increased [32][53]. Lithium Ore Imports - From January to August, the cumulative domestic lithium ore imports were 3.85 million tons, basically the same year - on - year. The imports from African countries increased significantly [36]. Lithium Salt Imports - From January to August, the cumulative imports of lithium carbonate reached 153,400 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 3.5%. In August, the imports increased significantly [40]. Domestic Supply - From January to August, the cumulative domestic lithium carbonate production reached 596,400 tons, a year - on - year increase of 40%. The smelting capacity is sufficient [44]. 03 Demand Analysis Primary Demand - From January to August, the consumption of lithium carbonate increased by 45.62% year - on - year to 711,000 tons. The consumption of cathode ternary materials, lithium iron phosphate, and lithium cobalt oxide increased by 14.14%, 56%, and 31.39% respectively [56]. Inventory in the Industrial Chain - The industrial chain is in a complex game between high inventory pressure and structural demand growth. The upstream lithium carbonate inventory is high, while the inventory - to - sales ratio of the cathode and battery is relatively healthy. The inventory of new - energy vehicles in the downstream has started seasonal destocking [60]. Global New - Energy Vehicle Sales - It is expected that the global new - energy vehicle sales will reach 22.2 million units in 2025, a year - on - year increase of 22%. The domestic sales are expected to reach 16.5 million units, a year - on - year increase of 28% [64]. Demand for Lithium from New - Energy Vehicles - The proportion of pure - electric vehicles in new - energy vehicles has increased, and the average battery capacity per vehicle has also increased, driving strong demand for lithium [72]. Global Energy - Storage Market - It is expected that the global energy - storage new - installed capacity will reach 82GW/216GWh in 2025, a year - on - year increase of 28%/36%. China, the United States, and Europe lead the global energy - storage demand growth [78]. 04 Balance and Price Cost Curve - In 2025, the center of the lithium resource cost curve will shift downward further. The cost of non - integrated lithium spodumene smelting enterprises fluctuates greatly [83]. Profit Status - In the first half of the year, enterprises using externally purchased raw materials were in long - term losses. In the third quarter, the smelting profit rebounded from the bottom [87]. Supply - Demand Balance and Price - In 2025, the domestic lithium carbonate supply is expected to be 1.135 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 25.36%, and the demand is expected to be 1.0905 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 32.39%. The annual surplus is expected to be 44,400 tons. The price will fluctuate around the high - cost curve, with a range of [60,000, 85,000] yuan/ton [90].