氧化铝&电解铝四季度报：价格逼近成本，氧化铝跌势有限；消费或已透支，电解铝重心下移

Report Information - Report Title: Alumina & Electrolytic Aluminum Q4 Report - Prices Approach Cost, Limited Decline for Alumina; Consumption May Be Overdrawn, Center of Electrolytic Aluminum Shifts Down [1] - Report Date: September 2025 [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Views Alumina - In Q3, the alumina market was in a supply surplus. After a short - lived price increase due to market sentiment, prices dropped as the market returned to the surplus fundamentals. The supply is expected to remain ample in Q4, but prices are close to the cost line. If prices fall below the cost line, production cuts may occur, potentially leading to a rebound. Short - term strategy is to sell on rallies, while long - term investors can consider buying near the cost line [5]. Electrolytic Aluminum - In Q3, aluminum prices fluctuated between Fed rate - cut expectations and market fundamentals. Domestic production capacity is at a high level, but the growth in supply is limited. Demand is weakening, especially in the real estate sector. Although there is some support from the macro - environment, prices are expected to be volatile in the short - term and gradually decline in the long - term [6]. Summary by Directory 01 Viewpoint and Strategy Alumina - Market Review: In Q3, the alumina market was in surplus. After a price spike due to "anti - involution" sentiment, prices fell as the market reverted to surplus fundamentals [5]. - Supply: The supply outlook is bearish. Although Guinea's ore shipments decreased in Q3, Australia's increased, and port inventories continued to build up, supporting high alumina plant operating rates [5]. - Demand: Demand is expected to be range - bound. High electrolytic aluminum capacity utilization ensures a large demand for alumina, but the growth in demand is limited as electrolytic aluminum capacity nears the "capacity ceiling" [5]. - Inventory: Inventory is bearish. Profitable production led to strong output and continuous inventory accumulation. As of September 26, inventory was 4.505 million tons, up 13.82% year - on - year [5]. - Outlook: The outlook is slightly bullish. In Q4, as the rainy season in Guinea ends, ore supply will increase, and prices may decline slightly. If prices fall below the cost line, production cuts could narrow the surplus, and prices may rebound. Short - term strategy is to sell on rallies, and long - term investors can buy near the cost line [5]. Electrolytic Aluminum - Market Review: In Q3, aluminum prices oscillated between Fed rate - cut expectations and fundamentals, with strong resistance at the 20,800 level. After a short - lived rise in mid - September, prices fell back [6]. - Supply: Supply is bearish. Domestic production capacity is at a high level, but future supply growth is limited as capacity approaches the "ceiling" [6]. - Demand: Demand is bearish. Domestic demand is weak, especially in the real estate sector, and exports of major aluminum products remain sluggish [6]. - Inventory: Inventory is slightly bearish. With a lower proportion of molten aluminum, social inventory has been building up since July - September, reaching 614,000 tons as of September 26, a medium - level in the past six years [6]. - Outlook: The outlook is slightly bearish. Supply will continue to pressure prices, but there is a risk of power - rationing - induced production cuts in the southwest in Q4. Consumption, which was strong in the first half, shows signs of being overdrawn, and demand growth is expected to slow. The market expects loose monetary policy from the Fed, providing some macro - support. Prices will be volatile in the short - term and may decline in the long - term [6]. 02 Bauxite Supply Review and Outlook - Domestic Bauxite: In August, China's bauxite production was 5.87 million tons, up 4.82% year - on - year, at a medium level in the past four years. Output in Guangxi, Guizhou, Henan, and Shanxi increased from July - August, with Henan reaching a two - year high [9]. - Imports: In August, imports decreased month - on - month due to the rainy season in Guinea but remained at the highest level in the past six years. From January - August, cumulative imports were 141.7563 million tons, up 31.63% year - on - year, with a narrowing growth rate [13]. - Country - Specific Shipments: From July - August, shipments from Australia to China increased, while those from Guinea decreased, falling to 4.607 million tons in August. As of September 19, port inventory was 28.76 million tons, at a medium - high level in the past six years [17]. 03 Alumina Fundamental Review and Outlook - Profit and Production: From July - August, production costs were stable at around 2,852 yuan/ton, and profit was about 400 yuan/ton in August, dropping to 270 yuan/ton in mid - September. Except for Shanxi, capacity utilization increased in other regions [22]. - Output: In July, global metallurgical alumina output was 12.952 million tons, up 0.91% year - on - year, reaching a six - year high. In August, China's output was 7.878 million tons, up 12.53% year - on - year, also a six - year high [28]. - Net Exports: From January - August, China maintained a net - export status. In July, net imports were - 103,500 tons, and in August, - 86,100 tons, at a very low level in the past six years [33]. - Inventory: Since June, inventory has been building up due to ample supply and strong production. As of September 26, inventory was 4.505 million tons, up 13.82% year - on - year [36]. - Supply - Demand Balance: Since May, the market has been in surplus. Although Guinea's shipments decreased in the rainy season, Australian imports compensated, leading to strong output. If prices fall below the cost line in Q4, production cuts may narrow the surplus [40]. 04 Electrolytic Aluminum Supply Review and Outlook - Cost and Profit: In August, although alumina prices fell, electrolytic aluminum production costs rose slightly to 16,111 yuan/ton, and profit decreased to 4,548 yuan/ton [42]. - Output: From July - August, global electrolytic aluminum output was 12.545 million tons, up 1.1% year - on - year, at a six - year high. China's output was 7.566 million tons, up 2.6% year - on - year, with August's output reaching a six - year high [45]. - Imports: From July - September, the Shanghai - London ratio declined, and in August, imports decreased month - on - month to 495,600 tons, up 16.9% year - on - year, at a relatively high level in the past six years [49]. - Inventory: From July - August, the proportion of molten aluminum was low, and social inventory has been building up since July - September, reaching 614,000 tons as of September 26, a medium - level in the past six years. SHFE and LME inventories also increased, weakening inventory support [52][56]. 05 Electrolytic Aluminum Downstream and Terminal Consumption Review and Outlook - Downstream Industry: - Aluminum Profiles: The real - estate slump continued to drag down the aluminum - profile industry. In July - August, the operating rate decreased to 42.27% in August and is expected to remain weak [62]. - Aluminum Sheets and Strips: From July - August, the operating rate first fell and then rebounded to 70.97% in August, lower than the end of last year [62]. - Exports: Trade barriers persisted, and aluminum - product exports showed no significant improvement. Aluminum - profile, sheet - strip, and foil exports decreased year - on - year, while aluminum - cable exports increased but accounted for a small proportion [66][71]. - End - User Markets: - Real Estate: The real - estate market remained weak. From January - August, new - construction area, construction area, and completion area all decreased year - on - year, with the decline in completion area accelerating [76][81]. - Automobiles: From January - August, China's automobile production was 21.026 million vehicles, up 12.64% year - on - year, with a slightly narrowing growth rate. The sales - to - production ratio was 1.0149 in August, indicating a healthy market [85]. - New - Energy Vehicles: From January - August, production was 9.6031 million vehicles, up 36.76% year - on - year, with a slightly narrowing growth rate. The sales - to - production ratio was 1.0029 in August [89]. - Home Appliances: In Q3, as government subsidies were exhausted, the growth rate of white - goods sales slowed down [94]. - Photovoltaic: From January - August, cumulative installed capacity was 1117.23GW, up 48.5% year - on - year, with a narrowing growth rate. Cumulative new - installed capacity was 230.61GW, up 64.73% year - on - year, also with a narrowing growth rate [99]. 06 Electrolytic Aluminum Supply - Demand Balance and Outlook - Supply - Demand Balance: In Q3, high production capacity utilization led to high output. With the inflow of Russian aluminum and weakening consumption, the market turned to a slight surplus. In Q4, there is a risk of power - rationing - induced production cuts in the southwest, and demand is expected to weaken further, leading to an increase in the surplus to about 129,000 tons [106].