Report Title - Steel Q4 Report: Cost Support, Upside Depends on Policy [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The steel fundamentals remain weak with high supply pressure, weak downstream demand for rebar, some support for hot-rolled coil demand, and strong exports. The market is expected to be dominated by macro policies in Q4, with limited downside and upside space depending on policy implementation. Steel is expected to fluctuate strongly within a certain range [7][12] - In Q3, the spot steel price increased by about 5%. The rebar and hot-rolled coil futures showed an "up-down-fluctuation" trend and strengthened slightly, with macro policies dominating the market. The unilateral positions in the steel futures market remained high in Q3 and decreased at the end of the quarter [12] - As of the end of September, the rebar-iron ore ratio was 3.94, down 0.43 compared to the end of December. The hot-rolled coil - rebar spread (01 contract) was 199 yuan/ton, up 86 yuan/ton compared to the end of June [12] Summary by Directory 01 Viewpoint Strategy - Core: The steel fundamentals are weak with high supply pressure, weak downstream demand for rebar, and strong exports. The market is expected to be dominated by macro policies in Q4, with limited downside and upside space depending on policy implementation. Steel is expected to fluctuate strongly within a certain range [12] - Logic: Q4 is expected to be dominated by macro policies. With policy support at the coal end, the downside space for steel is limited, but the upside depends on policy efforts [12] - Spot and Futures Market: In Q3, the spot steel price increased by about 5%. The rebar and hot-rolled coil futures showed an "up-down-fluctuation" trend and strengthened slightly, with macro policies dominating the market. The unilateral positions in the steel futures market remained high in Q3 and decreased at the end of the quarter [12] - Spread: As of the end of September, the rebar-iron ore ratio was 3.94, down 0.43 compared to the end of December. The hot-rolled coil - rebar spread (01 contract) was 199 yuan/ton, up 86 yuan/ton compared to the end of June [12] - Strategy: Consider interval operations. The rebar 01 contract is expected to trade between 3050 - 3400 yuan/ton, and the hot-rolled coil 10 contract between 3200 - 3500 yuan/ton. Consider buying on dips [12] 02 Macro Level - In Q3, policy expectations dominated the black - sector market. Policies such as the construction of a unified national market, the upcoming release of a steady - growth plan for key industries, and the implementation of the "Anti - involution" policy had different impacts on the market, causing price fluctuations in the black sector [15] 03 Spot and Basis - Spot Price: In Q3, the rebar and hot-rolled coil prices showed an "up-down-fluctuation" trend, with a spot price increase of about 5%. Policy expectations and coal price fluctuations were the main drivers of price changes [17] - Futures Market: The rebar futures showed an "up-down-fluctuation" trend, with the main contract fluctuating around 3000 - 3400 yuan/ton. The hot-rolled coil futures also showed a similar trend, with stronger terminal demand and greater resistance to price drops [20][31] - Basis: The rebar basis fluctuated around 100 yuan/ton, and the hot-rolled coil basis first decreased and then increased, fluctuating around 50 yuan/ton at the end of September [21][31] - Open Interest: The rebar futures open interest fluctuated around 3 million lots in Q3 and decreased at the end of the quarter. The hot-rolled coil futures open interest first increased and then decreased [22][34] - Inter - period Spread: The rebar futures price curve steepened, and the inter - period spread widened. The hot-rolled coil futures price curve showed a mild Back structure, and the 10 - 1 spread increased [25][40] 04 Spread - Rebar - Iron Ore Ratio: As of the end of September, the rebar-iron ore ratio was 3.94, down 0.43 compared to the end of December. There may be opportunities to short the rebar-iron ore ratio in the future [44][45] - Hot - Rolled Coil - Rebar Spread: As of the end of September, the hot-rolled coil - rebar spread (01 contract) was 199 yuan/ton, up 86 yuan/ton compared to the end of June. Consider shorting the spread at high levels in the future [47] 05 Supply - Overall Production: As of September 26, the cumulative production of five major steel products was 335 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.83%. The cumulative rebar production was 83 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.05%, and the hot-rolled coil production was 129 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.44% [50] - Regional Production: In the East China region, the production of sample enterprises decreased in September. In the South region, the rebar production increased slightly, while in the North region, it decreased compared to last year [54] - Production Process: The long - process production was basically flat year - on - year, while the short - process production decreased. The iron water production of steel mills remained high, and the short - process electric furnace production was average, with a slight year - on - year decrease in scrap consumption [57][64] - Cost Comparison: The blast furnace production was more cost - effective than the electric furnace production this year [67] 06 Demand - Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil Demand: As of the week of September 26, the cumulative apparent demand for rebar was 80.83 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.08 million tons, while that for hot-rolled coil was 124.17 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.99 million tons [72] - Profitability: The profitability of steel mills remained above 50% in the first three quarters. The profits of blast furnace rebar production, electric furnace production, and hot-rolled coil production first increased and then decreased, with hot-rolled coil having relatively strong profits [74][83] - Investment and Consumption: From January to August, real estate investment decreased year - on - year, while infrastructure investment increased slightly. The cement and concrete shipments decreased year - on - year, while the added value of multiple manufacturing industries increased [86][101] - Exports: From January to August 2025, China's cumulative steel exports were 77.49 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10%. The exports of bars and billets increased significantly, while those of plates decreased [104] 07 Inventory - Overall Inventory: As of the week of September 26, the factory inventory of five major steel products was 4.21 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 420,000 tons, and the social inventory was 10.89 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.77 million tons [108] - Rebar Inventory: The rebar inventory pressure was high, with the factory inventory and social inventory increasing year - on - year. The warehouse receipts at Jiangsu Huilong Port put pressure on the near - month contracts [112] - Hot - Rolled Coil Inventory: The hot-rolled coil inventory continued to accumulate, with relatively high inventory levels [114]
钢材四季度报：成本有支撑，上方空间看政策
Fo Shan Jin Kong Qi Huo·2025-09-30 07:22