Riders on the Charts:每周大类资产配置图表精粹：资产配置快评-20250930

Group 1: Market Trends - After the Federal Reserve's September meeting, investors reduced their short positions on the US dollar, with speculative net short positions decreasing from 12,900 to 10,400 contracts, a reduction of 2,500 contracts, representing a drop of 7.9%[4] - In Q2 2025, the debt leverage ratio across various sectors in the US declined, with household debt leverage falling to 68.8%, the lowest since Q3 1999[7] - The ratio of US household net wealth to disposable income increased to 7.8 times, the highest level since Q3 2024, with net wealth reaching a record high of $176.3 trillion[10] Group 2: Investment Activity - As of July 2025, overseas investors held a record $9.16 trillion in US Treasury securities, an increase of $32 billion from June 2025[13] - US pension funds increased their holdings in US stocks by $900 billion in Q2 2025, raising their total stock holdings to $8.9 trillion[16] - The equity risk premium (ERP) for the CSI 300 index was updated to 4.3%, indicating potential for valuation uplift compared to historical averages[18] Group 3: Financial Indicators - The forward arbitrage return for China's 10-year government bonds was reported at 31 basis points, which is 61 basis points higher than the level in December 2016[21] - The 3-month USD/JPY basis swap was recorded at -17 basis points, indicating a tightening in the offshore dollar financing environment[24] - The copper-gold price ratio fell to 2.7, while the offshore RMB exchange rate rose to 7.1, indicating diverging signals in recent trends[27]