Zhongyuan Securities·2025-09-30 07:38Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the power equipment and new energy sector [1]. Core Insights - The photovoltaic (PV) industry index showed a significant increase of 13.71% in September, outperforming the CSI 300 index, which had a return of 2.74% during the same period [5][8]. - The report highlights a notable decline in domestic new PV installation demand, with August 2025 seeing a 55.29% year-on-year drop in new installations [19]. - The report emphasizes the expected tightening of supply in the polysilicon sector due to proposed energy consumption standards, which could lead to a reduction in effective domestic polysilicon capacity by approximately 16.4% [42]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Performance Review - The PV industry index experienced a strong upward trend in September, with a daily average transaction amount of 69.616 billion yuan, marking a significant increase [8]. - Most sub-sectors within the PV industry saw price increases, particularly conductive silver paste and inverters, which rose by 31.20% and 27.07% respectively [12]. 2. Industry and Company Dynamics - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology announced measures to combat low-price competition in the PV sector, aiming for high-quality development [16]. - The domestic new PV installation capacity for August was reported at 7.36 GW, a significant decrease compared to the previous year [19]. - The polysilicon industry is expected to face supply constraints due to new energy consumption standards, which will require existing companies to meet stricter energy consumption limits [42]. 3. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading companies in specific sub-sectors such as energy storage inverters, BC and perovskite batteries, and polysilicon materials, as the competitive landscape is expected to improve [5][19]. 4. Price Data - Prices across the PV supply chain have shown an upward trend, with polysilicon prices ranging from 48 to 55 yuan per kilogram, reflecting a 5 yuan increase from the previous month [55]. - The price of N-type solar cells has also seen slight increases, with specific models priced at 1.35 yuan and 1.70 yuan per watt [56].