四季度钢矿或先抑后扬

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View of the Report - The steel market is in a downward cycle, and the focus of the steel and ore futures market in Q4 is expected to be on domestic and international macro and policy changes. The price is likely to show a trend of first declining and then rising [4]. Summary by Directory Part 1: Review - Steel prices generally follow a 7 - year cycle. From 2008 - 2015, it was a downward trend, 2016 - 2021 an upward trend, and 2021 - 2025 a downward trend. In H1 2025, steel prices continued to fall, hitting a new low in June. In July, driven by anti - involution, prices rose strongly with a maximum increase of 16%, but fell unilaterally in August, and entered a range - bound state in September [7]. - Stainless steel had an upward trend from 2019 - 2022 and a downward trend since 2022. Iron ore generally follows a similar 7 - year cycle as steel, but with differences. Since 2021, it has been in a downward trend, with a sharp drop in 2021 and wide - range fluctuations between 555 - 955 from 2022 onwards. Overall, the iron ore trend is stronger than that of steel products [11]. Part 2: Current Analysis Supply - demand Logic - Macro - economic and Policy Impact: Economic growth is highly consistent with steel prices. China's GDP growth rate in Q1 was 5.4%, and the annual economic target is 5%. The economic growth rate in Q3 was significantly weaker than that in H1. Without obvious stimulus policies, it is difficult for steel prices to have a strong unilateral upward trend [14][17]. - Industry Structure Change: The proportion of construction steel in total steel consumption decreased from 31% in 2021 to 16% in 2024, while the proportion of steel used in infrastructure and machinery increased, with infrastructure becoming the largest consumer of steel [20]. - Real Estate Market: Since 2021, real estate investment indicators have turned negative, and steel prices have been in a downward cycle. From January to August 2025, the year - on - year decline in housing sales was 4.7%, the real estate development investment growth rate was - 12.9%, and the performance of new construction, completion, and construction areas was weak. The land transaction area has been low this year, indicating weak developer enthusiasm for land acquisition [23][27]. - Government Bond Issuance: In 2025, the issuance of local government bonds from January to August reached 7.68 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 41.9%. The replacement rhythm was significantly advanced, and the issuance of new bonds was relatively slow [30]. - Manufacturing Industry: The PMI in August was 49.4%, still in the contraction range. Global trade protectionism has affected the external demand of the steel - related manufacturing industry. It is expected that the steel demand in this industry will decline slightly in Q4 [33]. - Steel Exports: In Q3, the export growth rate first increased and then decreased. Although the price advantage of Chinese steel exports still exists, global trade protectionism will gradually suppress exports. The export growth rate in Q4 2025 may decline year - on - year [36]. - Crude Steel Production: From January to August 2025, China's crude steel production was 671.81 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.8%. It is expected that the crude steel production in Q4 will continue to decline, with an estimated output of about 200 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of about 1.5% [39][40]. - Iron Ore Imports: From January to August 2025, China imported 801.62 million tons of iron ore, a year - on - year decrease of 1.6%. It is expected that the import volume in Q4 will increase compared with Q3, but the annual import volume is still expected to decline slightly year - on - year [59]. - Iron Ore Production: In Q3 2025, the production of iron ore concentrate in China showed a recovery trend. It is expected that the production will continue to increase in Q4 due to the release of new production capacity and policy support [60]. - Iron Ore Inventory: In Q3 2025, the iron ore inventory was relatively stable, and there was a certain accumulation in September. It is expected that the port inventory will show a slight accumulation trend in Q4, and the steel mill inventory will first increase and then decrease [63].