月度中国宏观洞察：对四中全会和“十五五”规划有何期待？-20250930

Economic Outlook - The upcoming 20th Central Committee's Fourth Plenary Session will focus on the "14th Five-Year Plan," with an emphasis on economic rebalancing[3] - Consumer spending remains a priority, with potential reforms in social security and healthcare aimed at reducing precautionary savings[56] - The government is expected to enhance credit conditions for consumption and explore consumption subsidy policies[56] Trade Relations - The fourth round of US-China trade talks in September resulted in a basic framework consensus regarding TikTok ownership[4] - Despite progress in trade discussions, tensions persist, with the US attempting to impose tariffs on China and India[8] - China's exports to the US continued to decline, with a year-on-year drop of 33.1% in August, following a 21.7% decline in July[9] Policy Measures - New policy financial tools are anticipated, with a projected scale of CNY 500 billion aimed at supporting project capital[39] - The fiscal deficit rate reached a historical high of 15.6% in August, indicating increased government spending to stabilize the economy[38] - Monetary policy is expected to include a 50 basis point reserve requirement ratio cut and a 10-20 basis point interest rate reduction, though the timing may be delayed[44] Real Estate Market - The government is expected to implement measures to stabilize the real estate market, including support for property companies to reduce inventory[57] - Recent policy adjustments in major cities have aimed to optimize home purchasing conditions, with early signs of improved sales momentum[49] - The real estate sector remains a key focus for risk management, with ongoing challenges in stabilizing the market[57]