集运日报：SCFIS持续大幅下行叠加资金出逃盘面宽幅震荡建议空仓过节控制风险设置好止损国庆快乐！-20250930

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - SCFIS has been declining significantly, and with capital outflows, the market has been fluctuating widely. It is recommended to stay out of the market during the holiday to control risks and set stop - losses [2]. - The tariff issue has a marginal effect, and the core is the direction of spot freight rates. The main contract may be in the bottom - building process, and it is recommended to participate with a light position or just observe [2]. - The main contract is weak, while the far - month contracts are stronger, which is in line with the bottom - building judgment. Risk - takers are advised to try going long on the 12 and 02 contracts around 1600. Follow - up market trends should be monitored, and it is not recommended to hold losing positions [2]. - In the context of international instability, each contract still follows seasonal logic with large fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and see or try with a light position for arbitrage strategies [2]. - For long - term strategies, it is recommended to take profits when the contracts rise, wait for the correction to stabilize, and then make further judgments [2]. 3. Summary by Related Content a. Freight Indexes - On September 29, SCFIS (European route) was 1120.49 points, down 10.7% from the previous period; SCFIS (US West route) was 921.25 points, down 22.8% from the previous period [2]. - On September 26, NCFI (composite index) was 717.36 points, down 8.47% from the previous period; NCFI (European route) was 614.14 points, down 8.83% from the previous period; NCFI (US West route) was 868.22 points, down 8.11% from the previous period [2]. - On September 26, SCFI was 1114.52 points, down 83.69 points from the previous period; SCFI European line price was 971 USD/TEU, down 7.70% from the previous period; SCFI US West route was 1460 USD/FEU, down 10.76% from the previous period [2]. - CCFI (composite index) was 1087.41 points, down 2.9% from the previous period; CCFI (European route) was 1401.91 points, down 4.7% from the previous period; CCFI (US West route) was 824.92 points, up 2.4% from the previous period [2]. b. Economic Data - The eurozone's September manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 49.5, back below the boom - bust line, lower than analysts' expectations and the previous value of 50.7. The service PMI preliminary value rose from 50.5 to 51.4, exceeding the expected 50.5. The eurozone's September composite PMI preliminary value was 51.2, exceeding analysts' expectations. The eurozone's September Sentix investor confidence index was - 9.2, with an expected - 2 and a previous value of - 3.7 [2]. - In August, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.4%, up 0.1 percentage point from the previous month, and the manufacturing sentiment improved. The composite PMI output index was 50.5%, up 0.3 percentage point from the previous month, indicating an accelerated overall expansion of Chinese enterprises' production and business activities [2]. - The US September S&P Global manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 52 (August final value 53); the service PMI preliminary value was 53.9 (August final value 54.5); the composite PMI preliminary value was 53.6 (August final value 54.6) [2]. c. Tariff and Trade - The Sino - US tariff extension continues, and there has been no substantial progress in the negotiations. The tariff war has gradually evolved into a trade negotiation issue between the US and other countries, and the spot price has decreased slightly. The tariff issue has a marginal effect, and the core is the direction of spot freight rates [2]. d. Contract Information - On September 29, the main contract 2510 closed at 1115.0, with a decline of 3.11%, a trading volume of 1.67 million lots, and an open interest of 2.93 million lots, a decrease of 3117 lots from the previous day [2]. - The price limit for contracts 2508 - 2606 has been adjusted to 18%. The company's margin for contracts 2508 - 2606 has been adjusted to 28%. The daily opening limit for all contracts from 2508 - 2606 is 100 lots [2].