PMI数据点评：价格剪刀差升至年内新高

Core Insights - The manufacturing PMI for September is at 49.8%, showing a 0.4 percentage point increase from the previous month, marking two consecutive months of recovery [1][7] - The non-manufacturing business activity index stands at 50.0%, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points, indicating it is at the critical point [1][7] - The composite PMI output index is at 50.6%, up by 0.1 percentage points, suggesting a slight acceleration in overall economic output [1][7] Manufacturing Sector - The production index for September is at 51.9%, rising by 1.1 percentage points, reaching a nearly six-month high, indicating active manufacturing production [2][8] - The new orders index is at 49.7%, up by 0.2 percentage points, reflecting an improvement in market demand [2][8] - The new export orders index is at 47.8%, increasing by 0.6 percentage points, but external demand remains low [2][8] - The major raw materials purchase price index is at 53.2%, down by 0.1 percentage points, while the factory price index is at 48.2%, decreasing by 0.9 percentage points, leading to a widening price scissors gap of 5 percentage points, the highest level this year [2][8] Non-Manufacturing Sector - The service industry business activity index is at 50.1%, remaining in the expansion zone [3][9] - Specific sectors such as postal, telecommunications, and financial services have business activity indices above 60.0%, indicating rapid growth [3][9] - However, sectors closely related to consumer travel, such as dining and entertainment, have dropped below the critical point due to the end of the summer effect [3][9] - The business activity expectation index is at 56.3%, consistently above 55.0% this year, indicating stable optimism among service industry enterprises [3][9] Construction Sector - The construction industry business activity index is at 49.3%, a slight increase of 0.2 percentage points, but still below the expansion threshold [3][10] - The business activity expectation index for the construction sector is at 52.4%, up by 0.7 percentage points, indicating improved confidence among construction enterprises regarding market development [3][10] Overall Economic Outlook - The September PMI data indicates a continuation of economic recovery, albeit at a weak pace, with manufacturing improving but not yet entering the expansion zone, and non-manufacturing growth momentum weakening [3][10] - The report suggests that the actual year-on-year GDP growth for the third quarter may be below 5% [1][7]