2025年油轮市场基本面跟踪：油轮淡季逆势走强，或迎中长期基本面改善

Group 1: Market Performance - Since August, VLCC freight rates have shown strong performance, with September 16 recording a rate of $96,100 per day, the highest for September in history. The average rate for September 2025 is projected to be close to $75,000 per day, second only to the average of $78,956 per day in November 2022[6][9]. - The increase in freight rates is primarily driven by changes in trade structure, with a significant 94% month-on-month increase in crude oil exports from the U.S. Gulf to Japan, South Korea, and India in August[6][14]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - OPEC+ is expected to increase production, with a potential increase of approximately 2.69 million barrels per day in the medium term, considering the restoration of voluntary cuts[6][29]. - The VLCC fleet has not seen a concentrated scrapping event in nearly 20 years, leading to a supply constraint. The actual capacity growth rates for 2026 and 2027 are estimated at 3.3% and 5.1%, respectively, but adjusted for fleet age efficiency, the growth rates could be -0.3% and 1.8%[6][51][54]. Group 3: Inventory and Pricing Trends - Global crude oil inventories remain low, with a potential storage capacity of approximately 460 million barrels compared to the five-year high[36]. - China's crude oil inventory increased by 66 million barrels in 2025, with a current storage capacity utilization rate of 61%, indicating significant room for further inventory accumulation[35][36]. Group 4: Long-term Outlook - The long-term pricing outlook for oil transportation is closely tied to the replacement cost, with potential increases in ship prices and charter rates. Current second-hand ship prices could rise by nearly 30% if benchmarked against historical highs, and over 85% when adjusted for inflation[6]. - The effective contribution of vessels over 25 years old is negligible, with their operational efficiency dropping to nearly 0%, indicating a tightening supply situation as these vessels age[54].