固收、宏观周报：权益慢牛不息，金价上涨催化延续-20250930

Group 1: Market Performance Summary - US and Hong Kong stocks declined. From 20250922 - 20250928, the Nasdaq, S&P 500, and Dow Jones Industrial Average changed by -0.65%, -0.31%, and 0.15% respectively, and the Hang Seng Index changed by -1.57% [2] - A - shares showed a mixed trend: large - cap stocks rose while small - cap stocks fell. During the same period, the wind All - A index changed by 0.25%, and the CSI A100, CSI 300, CSI 500, CSI 1000, CSI 2000, and wind micro - cap stocks changed by 1.62%, 1.07%, 0.98%, -0.55%, -1.79%, and -0.21% respectively. In terms of sector styles, blue - chips and growth stocks in both Shanghai and Shenzhen markets rose, while the North Securities 50 Index changed by -3.11% [3] - Most industries declined, with semiconductors, non - ferrous metals, and new energy leading the gains. Among 30 CITIC industries, 8 rose and 22 fell. The leading industries were electronics, non - ferrous metals, and new energy, with weekly gains of over 3%. Semiconductor equipment, science and technology innovation semiconductors, and chips among ETFs performed well, with weekly gains of over 7% [4] - Yields of various maturity varieties of interest - rate bonds fluctuated. From 20250922 - 20250928, the 10 - year Treasury bond futures main contract fell by 0.14% compared to September 19, 2025. The yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond active bond decreased by 0.21 BP to 1.8768% [5] - The capital price increased, and the central bank made a net injection in the open market. As of September 26, 2025, R007 was 1.5538%, up 3.78 BP from September 19, 2025; DR007 was 1.5313%, up 2.17 BP. The central bank's net injection in the open market from 20250922 - 20250928 was 5806 billion yuan [6] - The bond market leverage level increased. The 7 - day capital cost was lower than the 5 - year Treasury bond yield. The differences between the yields of 5Y, 10Y, and 30Y Treasury bonds and IRS007 as of September 26, 2025, were 9.34, 34.68, and 68.70 BP respectively. The 5 - day average of inter - bank pledged repurchase volume increased from 7.16 trillion yuan on September 19, 2025, to 7.27 trillion yuan on September 26, 2025 [7][8] - US Treasury yields increased, and the curve shifted upward. From 20250922 - 20250928, US Treasury yields increased. As of September 26, 2025, the 10 - year US Treasury yield increased by 6 BP to 4.20% compared to September 19, 2025 [9] - The US dollar appreciated, and gold prices rose. From 20250922 - 20250928, the US dollar index increased by 0.55%. The US dollar appreciated against the euro, pound, and yen. Gold prices rose both internationally and domestically. London gold spot prices rose by 2.91% to $3769.85 per ounce, and COMEX gold futures prices rose by 2.51% to $3734.2 per ounce. Shanghai gold spot prices rose by 3.18% to 853.00 yuan per gram, and futures prices rose by 3.03% to 852.58 yuan per gram [10] Group 2: Core Views - The stock market may continue to fluctuate at a high level, and investors can look for structural investment opportunities. Although the September 22 joint press conference of the three financial regulatory departments did not mention short - term monetary policy adjustments, there may still be reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts in the future. It is recommended to focus on directions such as AI, computing power, energy storage, solid - state batteries, innovative drugs, gold, and rare earths [11] - Interest - rate bonds at current levels have allocation value, and investors should actively participate in gold allocation. The logic of the bond bull market remains intact, but high short - term risk appetite is not conducive to lower bond yields. The 10 - year Treasury bond yield close to 1.90% has allocation value. Gold prices are constantly hitting new highs, and it is advisable to actively participate in allocation [12]