EBSCN·2025-09-30 08:47Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for both A-shares and H-shares of China Petroleum [6]. Core Views - The newly confirmed reserves of 158 million tons in the Daqing Gulong shale oil demonstration area provide a resource guarantee for shale oil development, marking a leap in the area's development [2]. - China Petroleum is leading the shale oil revolution in China, with production expected to exceed 6.8 million tons by 2025, reflecting a growth rate of over 33% [3]. - The company is committed to high capital expenditure, with a planned upstream capital expenditure of 210 billion yuan for 2025, ensuring the growth of production and reserves [4]. Summary by Sections Production and Reserves - The Daqing Gulong shale oil demonstration area has achieved a daily production of over 3,500 tons, transitioning rapidly from "confirmed reserves" to "effective development" [2]. - The area has drilled 398 horizontal wells and produced over 1.4 million tons of oil to date, with production expected to exceed 400,000 tons in 2024, doubling for three consecutive years [2]. Financial Forecasts - The projected net profit for China Petroleum is 166.1 billion yuan in 2025, with earnings per share (EPS) of 0.91 yuan [5]. - Revenue is expected to decline slightly from 30,110 billion yuan in 2023 to 28,981 billion yuan in 2025, with a revenue growth rate of -1.36% [5]. Valuation Metrics - The report forecasts a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 9.0 for A-shares in 2025, indicating a stable valuation outlook [5]. - The return on equity (ROE) is projected to decrease from 11.14% in 2023 to 10.41% in 2025, reflecting a slight decline in profitability [13]. Strategic Initiatives - China Petroleum aims to enhance its value creation capabilities by accelerating the transformation of its refining and chemical businesses, focusing on low-cost oil conversion and high-value products [4]. - The company plans to establish 3 to 5 large-scale production demonstration areas by the end of the 14th Five-Year Plan, further solidifying its position in the shale oil sector [3].