Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" [7][56] Core Insights - The "Building Materials Industry Stabilization Work Plan (2025-2026)" was jointly released by six departments, aiming for green building materials revenue to exceed 300 billion yuan by 2026, prohibiting new cement and glass production capacity, and promoting the application of green building materials through government procurement [2][10] - The real estate market is expected to stabilize due to various supportive policies, including interest rate cuts and tax reductions, which are anticipated to enhance home buying willingness and ability [2][5] - The construction materials sector is likely to benefit from supply-side reforms and a potential turning point in the production capacity cycle, with expectations of improved demand in the real estate market [2][5] Summary by Sections Investment Highlights - The report emphasizes the importance of government policies in stabilizing the real estate market, including the promotion of "good materials supporting good houses" and local housing support policies [2][10] - The report notes that from January to August, 21,700 old residential communities were newly started or renovated, accounting for 87% of the annual plan [2][10] - The report highlights that the PPI has been in negative growth for 33 consecutive months, indicating a need for supply-side reforms, which could benefit the building materials sector [2][10] Recent High-Frequency Data - As of September 26, 2025, the average market price of bulk P.O 42.5 cement was 348.3 yuan/ton, showing a month-on-month increase of 1.0% but a year-on-year decrease of 8.0% [3][11] - The average ex-factory price of glass (5.00mm) was 1,235.7 yuan/ton, with a week-on-week increase of 5.7% and a year-on-year increase of 8.3% [3][16] Sector Review - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.21%, while the Shenzhen Composite Index fell by 0.08%. The building materials index decreased by 2.11% [4][47] - Among sub-sectors, glass manufacturing saw a slight increase of 0.42%, while cement manufacturing experienced a decline of 2.77% [4][47] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on three main lines for investment: high-quality companies benefiting from stock renovation, undervalued stocks with long-term alpha attributes, and leading cyclical building materials companies showing signs of bottoming out [5][50]
建筑材料:建材稳增长方案出台,多地发布好房子标准
Huafu Securities·2025-09-30 08:47