格林大华期货中国宏观经济三季报：8月经济数据有所回落，期待更多政策

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - In the first eight months of 2025, China's economic performance was mixed, with some indicators falling short of market expectations. The economy needs continuous domestic demand to maintain rapid growth, and more counter - cyclical adjustment policies are expected in the fourth quarter [68]. Summary by Categories Investment - From January to August, national fixed - asset investment increased by 0.5% year - on - year, lower than the market expectation of 1.3% and the 1.6% growth in January - July. General infrastructure investment (including electricity) increased by 5.4%, narrow infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) increased by 2.0%, and manufacturing investment increased by 5.1%. Real estate development investment decreased by 12.9% [4]. Real Estate - From January to August, the sales area of new commercial housing decreased by 4.7% year - on - year, and the sales volume decreased by 7.3%. In August, the sales of new commercial housing accelerated their decline. In September, the year - on - year growth of commercial housing transactions in 30 large - and medium - sized cities was due to a low base last year, and the year - on - year growth rate in the fourth quarter will face challenges. In August, the prices of second - hand residential properties in first, second, and third - tier cities continued to decline [6][9][11]. Consumption - In August, the total retail sales of social consumer goods increased by 3.4% year - on - year, lower than the market expectation of 3.8%. From January to August, the total retail sales of social consumer goods increased by 4.6%. The growth rate of some categories related to the trade - in policy slowed down in August, while the growth of improved consumption accelerated. From January to August, service retail sales increased by 5.1% [13][15][18]. Industry - In August, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 5.2% year - on - year, lower than the market expectation of 5.8%. The product sales rate of industrial enterprises above designated size was 96.6%, a year - on - year decrease of 0.1 percentage point. From January to August, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 0.9% year - on - year, turning positive from a 1.7% decline in January - July [22][24][62]. Employment - In August, the national urban surveyed unemployment rate was 5.3%, up 0.1 percentage point from the previous month. The unemployment rate of 16 - 24 - year - old labor force (excluding students) in urban areas was 18.9%, higher than the same period last year [28][30]. Foreign Trade - In August, China's exports denominated in US dollars increased by 4.4% year - on - year, and imports increased by 1.3% year - on - year. Exports to ASEAN and the EU increased, while exports to the US decreased. Exports to regions other than the top five export destinations maintained high - speed growth [32][34][37]. Prices - In August, the CPI decreased by 0.4% year - on - year, mainly due to the high base of comparison in the same period last year and lower - than - seasonal food prices. The PPI decreased by 2.9% year - on - year, and the month - on - month decline ended [39][48]. Finance - In August, the social financing scale increased by 2.57 trillion yuan, less than the same period last year. The balance of M2 increased by 8.8% year - on - year, and the balance of M1 increased by 6% year - on - year. The stock of social financing scale increased by 8.8% year - on - year, and the balance of RMB loans increased by 6.8% year - on - year [52][56][59].