山外有山，黄金先抑后扬

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Oscillation [1] - Silver: Oscillation [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The core driving factors for the rise in gold prices, such as the US government debt issue and the long - term logic of de - dollarization trading, remain intact, determining the bull market pattern of gold. The issue of the Fed's independence still has room to ferment in the long run, which will push up the gold price when it resonates with other assets. In the fourth quarter, gold is expected to enter an oscillation phase [4]. - The silver price increase is basically in place. In the fourth quarter, the London silver is expected to trade in the range of $40 - 50 per ounce, and the main contract of Shanghai silver in the range of 9000 - 12000 yuan per kilogram [4]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Third - quarter Gold Market Review - After the gold price rose to a maximum of $3500 per ounce due to tariffs in the first half of the year, it entered a range - bound oscillation. From late April to late August, London gold oscillated horizontally in the range of $3100 - 3500 per ounce. A new upward trend started at the end of August. The weak non - farm employment reports from August to September strengthened the market's expectation of Fed rate cuts, driving capital into gold. In September, the Fed cut interest rates by 25bp, entering the second half of the rate - cut cycle. Trump's intervention in the Fed also contributed to the rise in gold prices. In the third quarter, the gold price rose by 16%, with a 11% increase in September alone [13][16]. 3.2 Standing at the Historical High and Looking Ahead 3.2.1 The US Economy Is in a State of Decline but Not in Recession, and Stagflation Needs Further Verification - The US economic growth has gradually slowed down in the first three quarters. Although consumption has some resilience, the economic endogenous expansion momentum is weakening. After the equal - tariff policy was implemented in August, its impact on the real economy remains to be seen. The labor market has weakened significantly in the third quarter, and inflation has stopped falling and rebounded. The potential risk of stagflation has not been ruled out and requires hard data verification [22]. 3.2.2 The Sharp Drop in Employment Data Strengthens the Expectation of Rate Cuts - In the third quarter, the US labor market reached a turning point. The non - farm employment data was significantly revised downwards, and the average non - farm employment increase in the past four months was only 26,000. The employment market has no supply - demand gap, and the unemployment rate may rise further. Most service industries and the manufacturing industry are reducing employment. The market's trust in the data quality of the US Department of Labor is also declining [34]. 3.2.3 Inflation Rebounds and Faces Upward Risks - Since the second half of 2024, US inflation has stopped falling and rebounded. In the third quarter of 2025, inflation rebounded again. Although the impact of tariffs has not fully manifested, core inflation still has upward space. In August, the core PCE increased to 2.9% year - on - year [45]. 3.3 The Fed's Independence Is Disturbed, and There Are Concerns about Fiscal Deficit Monetization 3.3.1 The Fed Resumes Rate Cuts, and Its Independence Is Worrisome - In the third quarter, after the significant decline in non - farm employment data, the Fed turned dovish and cut interest rates in September. The market expects the Fed to cut rates twice more in the fourth quarter. The internal division between hawks and doves in the Fed has intensified. Trump's interference in the Fed's personnel has undermined the Fed's independence, which may drive up the gold price in the long run [52][55]. 3.3.2 The US Fiscal Deficit Continues to Expand, and the Logic of Gold as a Credit Hedge Remains - In the 2025 fiscal year, the US fiscal deficit has continued to grow, reaching $1.8 trillion as of August, and the deficit - to - GDP ratio has expanded to - 6.6%. The Trump administration aims to maintain economic growth, which requires continued fiscal expansion and rate cuts. The US government debt problem is difficult to solve quickly, and the combination of high inflation and low interest rates will lead to a decline in the US dollar's credit, making the logic of going long on gold firm [60][65]. 3.3.3 Overseas Markets Increased Their Allocation of Gold in the Third Quarter - In the process of the continuous rise in the gold price, there has been a rotation in the allocation of gold between overseas and Chinese markets. In the third quarter, due to the weakening of the US employment market, the strengthening of rate - cut expectations, and the outbreak of the Fed's independence issue, overseas markets increased their long - position sentiment towards gold. The North American gold ETF holdings increased significantly, while the domestic market showed less enthusiasm for gold [69][70]. 3.4 Investment Recommendations - For the fourth quarter, the London gold is expected to trade in the range of $3400 - 4000 per ounce, and the main contract of Shanghai gold in the range of 800 - 900 yuan per gram. The domestic gold is expected to remain at a discount to overseas gold. The London silver is expected to trade in the range of $40 - 50 per ounce, and the main contract of Shanghai silver in the range of 9000 - 12000 yuan per kilogram [77].