瑞达期货多晶硅产业日报-20250930

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The polysilicon market is still under fundamental sentiment suppression but remains stable overall. The new energy - consumption national standard may affect the supply pattern in the short - term, and the uncertainty of the "anti - involution" policy is an important factor in market fluctuations. New capacity faces difficulties in being launched in the short - term. On the demand side, silicon wafer prices are flat, downstream inventory is high, new orders slow down, and domestic PV installation has declined for two consecutive months, resulting in weak terminal demand. However, the growth in N - type material demand may offset some of the P - type surplus and support prices. It is recommended to buy on dips and observe whether downstream PV enterprises can effectively transfer costs after the holiday [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main polysilicon contract is 51,360 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan; the 11 - 12 spread is - 2,560 yuan, down 60 yuan; the main position is 87,359 lots, down 6,409 lots; the polysilicon - industrial silicon spread is 42,720 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of polysilicon is 52,550 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis is 1,270 yuan/ton, up 185 yuan; the weekly average price of PV - grade polysilicon is 6.54 US dollars/kg, unchanged. The average prices of cauliflower, dense, and re - feed polysilicon are 30 yuan/kg, 36 yuan/kg, and 34.8 yuan/kg respectively, all unchanged [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The closing price of the main industrial silicon contract is 8,640 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; the spot price is 9,450 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan. The monthly export volume of industrial silicon is 76,642.01 tons, up 2,635.83 tons; the monthly import volume is 1,337.59 tons, up 1,220.14 tons. The monthly output is 366,800 tons, up 33,600 tons; the total social inventory is 552,000 tons, up 10,000 tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of polysilicon is 125,000 tons, up 20,000 tons; the monthly import volume is 1,006 tons, down 164 tons. The weekly spot price of imported polysilicon in China is 6.89 US dollars/kg, unchanged; the monthly average import price is 2.62 US dollars/ton, down 0.25 US dollars/ton [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly output of solar cells is 6,985.7 million watts, up 347.5 million watts; the average price of solar cells is 0.82 RMB/W, up 0.01 RMB/W. The monthly export volume of PV modules is 149,022,600 units, up 38,589,900 units; the monthly import volume is 21,440,200 units, up 6,914,600 units; the monthly average import price is 0.25 US dollars/unit, down 0.05 US dollars/unit. The weekly PV industry comprehensive price index (SPI) for polysilicon is 32.82, unchanged [2]. 3.6 Industry News - At the 2025 Brazil São Paulo Solar Exhibition, TrinaTracker announced supplying a 130MW Smart Tracking System for the Colinas project in Brazil, showing continuous breakthroughs of Chinese PV enterprises in the Latin American market. The draft of the new energy - consumption national standard for polysilicon has been released, and the "anti - involution" policy details are yet to be finalized [2].