Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-09-30 09:09Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View - In October, the number of newly scheduled maintenance PVC plants is small, and previously shut - down plants are gradually restarting, so the capacity utilization rate is expected to rise slightly. The 200,000 - ton plant of Qingdao Gulf is expected to be put into production in October, which may further increase the industry's supply pressure. - In the early part of October, some downstream enterprises will take holidays and stop production. After the holiday, there will be a phased replenishment demand from downstream enterprises, but the growth space of demand is restricted by the weak domestic real - estate market. Affected by India's anti - dumping tax, the export market may remain on the sidelines, and its role in alleviating the domestic supply - demand contradiction is limited. - The PVC inventory is expected to maintain a high - level accumulation trend, which is the main source of price pressure. Currently, the calcium carbide process is deeply in the red, and chlor - alkali enterprises use alkali profits to offset chlorine losses. As chlor - alkali profits shrink, the lower limit of PVC valuation may rise in the future, providing some support for the price. The PVC futures price is continuously suppressed by the supply - demand contradiction, but considering the current low valuation and cost support, the further downward space of the price may be limited [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of PVC futures is 4,839 yuan/ton, a decrease of 57 yuan; the trading volume is 591,738 lots, a decrease of 62,851 lots; the open interest is 1,073,359 lots, a decrease of 1,002 lots. The long position of the top 20 futures holders is 837,249 lots, a decrease of 7,171 lots; the short position is 950,096 lots, an increase of 8,660 lots; the net long position is - 112,847 lots, a decrease of 15,831 lots [3]. 3.2现货市场 - In the spot market, the prices of ethylene - based PVC in East and South China remain unchanged, while the prices of calcium carbide - based PVC in East and South China decline slightly. The CIF prices of PVC in China and Southeast Asia and the FOB price in Northwest Europe remain unchanged. The basis of PVC is - 166 yuan/ton, a decrease of 9 yuan [3]. 3.3上游情况 - The mainstream average prices of calcium carbide in North and Northwest China decline, while that in Central China remains unchanged. The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Inner Mongolia remains unchanged. The CFR mid - prices of VCM in the Far East increase, while those in Southeast Asia remain unchanged. The CFR mid - prices of EDC in the Far East and Southeast Asia remain unchanged [3]. 3.4产业情况 - The weekly operating rate of PVC is 78.97%, an increase of 2.01 percentage points. The operating rate of calcium carbide - based PVC is 79.33%, an increase of 2.44 percentage points, and that of ethylene - based PVC is 78.13%, an increase of 1.01 percentage points. The total social inventory of PVC is 534,700 tons, an increase of 100 tons. The inventory in East China increases by 1,300 tons, while that in South China decreases by 1,200 tons [3]. 3.5下游情况 - The national real - estate climate index is 93.05, a decrease of 0.29. The cumulative value of new housing construction area is 398.0101 million square meters, an increase of 45.9501 million square meters. The cumulative value of real - estate construction area is 6.4310894 billion square meters, an increase of 43.7794 million square meters. The cumulative value of real - estate development investment is 316.9394 billion yuan, an increase of 35.8801 billion yuan [3]. 3.6期权市场 - The 20 - day historical volatility of PVC is 10.37%, an increase of 0.87 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility is 9.7%, a decrease of 0.19 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money put and call options of PVC is 14.74%, a decrease of 0.11 percentage points [3]. 3.7行业消息 - From September 20th to 26th, China's PVC capacity utilization rate is 78.97%, a month - on - month increase of 2.01%. From September 19th to 25th, the downstream operating rate of PVC decreases by 1.43% to 47.76%, among which the operating rate of pipes increases by 1.3% to 40.43%, and the operating rate of profiles decreases by 0.52% to 38.91%. As of September 25th, the PVC social inventory is 971,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.84%. From September 19th to 25th, the average cost of the calcium carbide process increases to 5,312 yuan/ton, and the profit decreases by 127 yuan/ton to - 657 yuan/ton; the average cost of the ethylene process decreases to 5,602 yuan/ton, and the profit increases by 7 yuan/ton to - 645 yuan/ton [3].