瑞达期货沪镍产业日报-20250930

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The PNBP policy of the Indonesian government restricts the issuance, increasing the supply cost of nickel resources, and the premium of domestic trade ore remains stable. The supply of nickel ore from the Philippines has recovered, and the port inventory of domestic nickel ore has increased rapidly. [3] - The newly invested electrolytic nickel projects are being put into production slowly. However, due to the low nickel price, some smelters are suffering losses and reducing production. It is expected that the production of refined nickel will remain stable at a high level. [3] - The profit of stainless - steel plants has improved, and the plants are increasing production. The production and sales of new energy vehicles continue to rise, but the demand for ternary batteries is limited. Recently, downstream buyers mainly purchase at low prices, the spot premium has risen slightly, the domestic inventory has decreased, and the overseas LME inventory has increased. [3] - Technically, the position volume has decreased, the price is fluctuating, there are differences in long - short trading, and the price will maintain a range - bound fluctuation. It is recommended to wait and see for the time being. [3] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai nickel is 120,900 yuan/ton, a decrease of 200 yuan; the spread between the October - November contracts of Shanghai nickel is - 590 yuan/ton, a decrease of 310 yuan. [3] - The price of LME 3 - month nickel is 15,325 US dollars/ton, an increase of 170 US dollars; the position volume of the main contract of Shanghai nickel is 76,140 lots, a decrease of 7,009 lots. [3] - The net long position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai nickel is - 26,033 lots, an increase of 2,907 lots; the LME nickel inventory is 231,312 tons, an increase of 1,188 tons. [3] - The inventory of nickel in the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 29,008 tons, a decrease of 826 tons; the total cancelled warrants of LME nickel is 6,780 tons, a decrease of 198 tons. [3] - The warehouse receipt quantity of Shanghai nickel is 24,817 tons, a decrease of 240 tons. [3] Spot Market - The spot price of SMM 1 nickel is 122,450 yuan/ton, an increase of 450 yuan; the average spot price of 1 nickel plate in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 122,550 yuan/ton, an increase of 650 yuan. [3] - The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic nickel is 85 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the bonded warehouse (warehouse receipt) price of Shanghai electrolytic nickel is 85 US dollars/ton, unchanged. [3] - The average price of battery - grade nickel sulfate is 28,650 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis of the main NI contract is 1,550 yuan/ton, an increase of 650 yuan. [3] - The LME nickel (spot/three - month) premium is - 188.31 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 9.54 US dollars. [3] Upstream Situation - The monthly import volume of nickel ore is 634.67 million tons, an increase of 134.09 million tons; the total port inventory of nickel ore is 1,409.37 million tons, an increase of 9.26 million tons. [3] - The average monthly import unit price of nickel ore is 61.33 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 2.43 US dollars; the tax - included price of Indonesian laterite nickel ore with 1.8% Ni is 41.71 US dollars/wet ton, unchanged. [3] Industry Situation - The monthly production of electrolytic nickel is 29,430 tons, an increase of 1,120 tons; the total monthly production of ferronickel is 22,000 metal tons, a decrease of 200 metal tons. [3] - The monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 24,426.84 tons, a decrease of 13,807.17 tons; the monthly import volume of ferronickel is 874,100 tons, an increase of 38,200 tons. [3] Downstream Situation - The monthly production of 300 - series stainless steel is 3.98 million tons; the total weekly inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 1.7379 million tons, an increase of 0.35 million tons. [3] Industry News - The Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee held a meeting to discuss documents to be submitted to the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee. The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee will be held in Beijing from October 20th to 23rd. [3] - The National Development and Reform Commission stated that the scale of new policy - based financial instruments is 500 billion yuan, all used to supplement project capital, supporting private enterprises to deeply participate in the "Artificial Intelligence +" action. [3] - The US Bureau of Labor Statistics said that in case of a government shutdown, all operations will be suspended, and no economic data will be released during this period. Some important upcoming reports that may be affected include the non - farm payrolls report this Friday. The US Department of Labor also releases the initial jobless claims data every Thursday. In addition, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) will be released on October 15th, which is a key inflation indicator and the last relevant data the Federal Reserve will obtain before its meeting on October 28 - 29th. [3]