瑞达期货沪铅产业日报-20250930

1. Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - Next week, the Shanghai lead futures market is expected to maintain a high - level volatile pattern. The supply of lead shows a stable and rising trend, while the overall demand is in a slow recovery stage. The decline in inventory provides some support for prices, and it is recommended to go long on lead prices at low levels [3] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai lead main contract was 16,940 yuan/ton, up 85 yuan; the LME 3 - month lead quote was 1,997 US dollars/ton, down 4.5 US dollars. The spread between the 11 - 12 - month contracts of Shanghai lead was - 45 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan. The trading volume of Shanghai lead decreased by 6,723 lots to 72,939 lots, and the net position of the top 20 decreased by 1,650 lots to - 2,066 lots. The Shanghai lead warehouse receipts decreased by 2,378 tons to 29,568 tons. The SHFE inventory decreased by 7,315 tons to 41,894 tons, and the LME lead inventory decreased by 600 tons to 218,825 tons [3] 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of 1 lead on Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network was 16,800 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price of 1 lead in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market was 16,890 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of the lead main contract was - 140 yuan/ton, down 85 yuan; the LME lead premium (0 - 3) was - 45.12 US dollars/ton, down 3.49 US dollars [3] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of 50% - 60% lead concentrate in Jiyuan was 16,428 yuan, down 43 yuan. The domestic recycled lead (≥98.5%) was 16,760 yuan/ton, unchanged. The supply - demand balance of lead (WBMS) was 22,000 tons, an increase of 45,500 tons. The number of recycled lead production enterprises was 68, unchanged. The capacity utilization rate of recycled lead was 37.88%, up 0.61 percentage points; the monthly output of recycled lead was 224,200 tons, down 67,500 tons. The average weekly operating rate of primary lead was 80.68%, up 0.12 percentage points, and the weekly output was 35,900 tons, unchanged. The processing fee for 60% lead concentrate at major ports was - 90 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The lead supply - demand balance (ILZSG) was - 0.5 thousand tons, an increase of 1.3 thousand tons. The global lead ore output was 395,900 tons, an increase of 15,700 tons, and the lead ore import volume was 134,800 tons, an increase of 12,700 tons [3] 3.4 Industry Situation - The refined lead import volume was 1,820.55 tons, down 1,596.29 tons; the refined lead export volume was 2,752.22 tons, up 957.7 tons. The average domestic processing fee for lead concentrate was 380 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan. The average price of waste batteries was 9,966.07 yuan/ton, down 1.79 yuan [3] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The export volume of batteries was 49.68 million, an increase of 1.925 million. The average price of lead - antimony alloy (for batteries, containing 2% antimony) was 19,850 yuan/ton, unchanged. The Shenwan industry index of batteries and other cells was 2,197.16 points, up 37.6 points. The monthly automobile production was 2.7524 million, an increase of 0.2424 million; the new - energy vehicle production was 1.333 million, an increase of 0.157 million [3] 3.6 Industry News - The US Senate Republicans will vote again on a bill to avoid a federal government shutdown on Tuesday, and Democrats reject the short - term temporary spending bill. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics will suspend operations during the government shutdown, neither collecting nor releasing data. US existing - home pending sales climbed to a five - month high in August due to falling interest rates. Trump proposed a 100% tariff on movies made outside the US and high tariffs on countries that do not produce furniture in the US. Fed officials have different views on interest - rate cuts [3] 3.7 View Summary - On the supply side, primary lead production is decreasing due to smelter maintenance and tight raw - material supply. Recycled lead production growth is slow due to environmental inspections and low waste - battery recycling efficiency. Although some companies have复产 expectations, it is expected to have limited impact on next week's supply. On the demand side, the demand for lead - acid batteries for vehicle starting is stable. The traditional "Golden September and Silver October" consumption season is warming up, but downstream enterprises are still mostly观望. The demand for energy storage in emerging fields is good, but overall demand has not yet shown a significant explosive growth. The decline in domestic and foreign inventories indicates that demand has driven inventory reduction to some extent, and the decline in domestic lead ingot social inventory supports lead prices. However, the subsequent inventory change needs attention as the pre - National Day stocking by downstream enterprises is coming to an end [3]