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瑞达期货生猪产业日报-20250930

Report Date - The report is dated September 30, 2025 [1] Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report Core View - The supply side has pressure as large - scale farms continue to sell and small - scale farmers are also actively selling large pigs. The demand side has marginal improvement due to cooler weather, price drops, and approaching holidays, but the growth is less than that of the supply side. The supply is sufficient while demand growth is limited, so the pig supply - demand remains in a loose pattern, suppressing pig prices. The pig 2511 contract decreased with reduced positions, continuing the weak trend [2] Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract for pigs is 12,355 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan; the main contract position is 61,105 hands, down 14,348 hands; the number of warehouse receipts is 0 hands; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 27,701 hands, up 1,256 hands; the main basis of live pigs is 245 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan [2] Spot Market - The spot prices of pigs in Henan Zhumadian, Jilin Siping, and Guangdong Yunfu are 12,600 yuan/ton, 12,200 yuan/ton, and 12,700 yuan/ton respectively, with no change [2] Upstream Situation - The monthly pig inventory is 42,4470,000 heads, up 7160,000 heads; the inventory of breeding sows is 4,0380,000 heads, down 40,000 heads; CPI month - on - month is - 0.4%, down 0.4 percentage points; the spot price of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang is 2,940 yuan/ton, unchanged; the corn spot price is 2,368.63 yuan/ton, down 0.98 yuan; the Dalian Commodity Exchange pig feed cost index is 883.25, down 5.13; the monthly feed output is 29,272,000 tons, up 999,000 tons; the price of binary breeding sows is 1,548 yuan/head, down 77 yuan; the breeding profit of purchased piglets is - 236.57 yuan/head, down 37.26 yuan; the breeding profit of self - bred and self - raised pigs is - 74.11 yuan/head, down 49.67 yuan; the monthly pork import volume is 80,000 tons, down 10,000 tons; the average price of white - striped chickens in the main production areas is 14.4 yuan/kg, up 0.1 yuan [2] Downstream Situation - The monthly slaughter volume of designated pig slaughtering enterprises is 33,500,000 heads, down 1,840,000 heads; the monthly catering revenue in total social consumer goods retail is 449.57 billion yuan, down 8.4 billion yuan [2] Industry News - According to Shanghai Ganglian's data, on September 30, 2025, the daily national pig slaughter volume of key breeding enterprises was 268,150 heads, a 7.20% drop from the previous day [2] Key Focus - There is no key news today [2]