中信期货晨报：股指与贵金属延续升势，多数商品走势平淡-20250930

Report Overview - Report Title: "Stock Index and Precious Metals Continue to Rise, Most Commodities Show Flat Trends - CITIC Futures Morning Report 20250930" [1] - Author: Zhong Ding from CITIC Futures Research Institute [1] 1. Investment Rating - The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - Overseas macro: Trump's tariff escalation and the US government shutdown crisis have increased policy risks. There are significant differences within the Fed regarding the pace of interest rate cuts and the policy framework [5]. - Domestic macro: In August, the year - on - year growth of industrial enterprise profits reached 20.4%, the highest in nearly two years, and the cumulative growth rate turned positive to +0.9%. However, the demand shortage remains. In the fourth quarter, the asset allocation order is equity > commodities > bonds [5]. - Asset view: Be cautious of external risk disturbances during holidays. Maintain the strategic advantage of equity and gold in the medium - term, and balance the tactical allocation [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Market Performance 3.1.1. Domestic Main Commodities - Shipping: The container shipping route to Europe has seen price drops, with a daily decline of -2.11% and a quarterly decline of -16.73% [2]. - Precious metals: Gold and silver prices are rising. Gold has a daily increase of 1.22% and a quarterly increase of 12.63%, while silver has a daily increase of 2.89% and a quarterly increase of 24.21% [2]. - Non - ferrous metals: Most non - ferrous metals show mixed trends, with some rising and some falling [2]. - Black building materials: Products like rebar, hot - rolled coils, and iron ore have different price changes, with iron ore having a quarterly increase of 13.62% [2]. - Energy and chemicals: Crude oil, fuel oil, and other products also have various price trends. Crude oil has a quarterly increase of 2.54% [2]. - Agricultural products: The prices of soybeans, palm oil, and other agricultural products fluctuate [2]. 3.1.2. Financial Markets - Stock index futures: The CSI 300 futures, SSE 50 futures, etc. are rising. The CSI 300 futures have a daily increase of 1.76% and a quarterly increase of 18.50% [3]. - Treasury bond futures: Most treasury bond futures are falling, such as the 2 - year treasury bond futures with a quarterly decline of -0.30% [3]. - Foreign exchange: The US dollar index has a quarterly increase of 1.47% [3]. 3.1.3. Overseas Commodities - Energy: NYMEX WTI crude oil and ICE Brent oil have different price trends. ICE Brent oil has a quarterly increase of 3.29% [3]. - Precious metals: COMEX gold and silver prices are rising. COMEX gold has a quarterly increase of 14.32% [3]. - Non - ferrous metals: LME metals also show mixed price movements [3]. - Agricultural products: CBOT soybeans, corn, etc. have price fluctuations [3]. 3.2. Sector and Variety Analysis 3.2.1. Finance - Stock index futures: Driven by technology events, the growth style is active, and the short - term outlook is for a volatile rise [6]. - Bond market: The bond market remains weak. Treasury bond futures are expected to fluctuate [6]. 3.2.2. Precious Metals - Gold and silver: Influenced by the restart of the US interest rate cut cycle in September, prices are expected to rise with fluctuations [6]. 3.2.3. Shipping - Container shipping route to Europe: As the peak season fades in the third quarter, prices are expected to fluctuate [6]. 3.2.4. Black Building Materials - Steel, coke, iron ore, etc.: Affected by factors such as demand expectations and policy disturbances, prices are expected to fluctuate [6]. 3.2.5. Non - ferrous and New Materials - Copper, aluminum, zinc, etc.: Affected by supply disturbances and other factors, prices show different trends, with copper expected to rise with fluctuations [6]. 3.2.6. Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil, LPG, etc.: Affected by supply - demand changes and geopolitical factors, prices are expected to fluctuate [8]. 3.2.7. Agriculture - Oils, protein meals, etc.: Affected by factors such as trade policies and weather, prices are expected to fluctuate, and the price of pigs is expected to fall with fluctuations [8].