铜价维持强势运行

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - Copper: The Shanghai copper price increased with higher trading volume last night, and the main contract price broke through the high point in March this year, followed by intraday volatile adjustment. Since Freeport announced a copper mine production cut on September 24th, the copper price has shown a significant increase with higher trading volume, attracting rapid attention from capital and showing strong upward momentum. As China is about to enter the National Day and Mid - Autumn Festival holiday, attention should be paid to overseas market volatility risks [4]. - Aluminum: The Shanghai aluminum price fluctuated downward today, with a continuous decline in open interest. Last week, affected by the sharp rise in copper prices, the aluminum price stabilized and rebounded, but the overall rebound was weak. Before the domestic holiday, there were signs of inventory reduction in electrolytic aluminum, providing support for the aluminum price. With a loose macro - environment and a marginal improvement in the supply - demand balance during the peak industrial season, there was an obvious outflow of funds before the holiday. Attention should be paid to the industrial demand situation after the holiday [5]. - Nickel: The Shanghai nickel price fluctuated downward today, with a slight decline in open interest. The sector - wide effect of the non - ferrous metals sector driven by copper prices has faded, and the nickel price has dropped back to the level at the beginning of last week. At the industrial level, the long - term oversupply of nickel elements continues to suppress the nickel price. In the short term, the slowdown in the accumulation of nickel ore at ports and the reduction of nickel inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange provide support for the nickel price. Continuous attention should be paid to the technical support at the 121,000 yuan mark [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry Dynamics - Copper: In September, the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was 49.8%, up 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a continued improvement in the manufacturing industry's prosperity level. On September 30th, SMM reported that as the National Day holiday approached, the downstream procurement sentiment of refined copper rod enterprises was weak. The high copper price and the short price - fixing period for downstream customers near the contract roll - over jointly suppressed new orders [8]. - Nickel: On September 30th, the price of SMM1 electrolytic nickel was in the range of 121,000 - 123,900 yuan/ton, with an average price of 122,450 yuan/ton, a rise of 450 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The mainstream spot premium quotation range for Jinchuan 1 electrolytic nickel was 2,300 - 2,400 yuan/ton, with an average premium of 2,350 yuan/ton, a rise of 50 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The spot premium and discount quotation range for domestic mainstream brand electrowon nickel was - 150 - 100 yuan/ton [8]. 3.2 Relevant Charts - Copper: The report includes charts on copper basis, copper monthly spread, domestic visible inventory of electrolytic copper (social inventory + bonded area inventory), overseas copper exchange inventory, LME copper cancelled warrant ratio, and Shanghai Futures Exchange warrant inventory [9][11][12][14][17][18]. - Aluminum: The report includes charts on aluminum basis, aluminum monthly spread, domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum, overseas exchange inventory of electrolytic aluminum (LME + COMEX), alumina inventory, and aluminum bar inventory [21][23][25][27][29][31]. - Nickel: The report includes charts on nickel basis, Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory, LME nickel cancelled warrant ratio, LME nickel price trend, nickel monthly spread, and nickel ore port inventory [33][37][40][42].