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节前观望情绪增加,煤焦期货偏弱震荡:煤焦日报-20250930
Bao Cheng Qi Huo·2025-09-30 09:23

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Coke: As of the week ending September 26, the combined daily coke output of independent coking plants and steel - mill coking plants was 1127,800 tons, a weekly decrease of 5900 tons. The profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants was - 34 yuan/ton, with losses widening by 17 yuan/ton, suppressing coking enterprises' production enthusiasm. The daily hot - metal output of 247 steel mills nationwide was 2,423,600 tons, a weekly increase of 13,400 tons. This week, coke inventory shifted downstream. The inventory of independent coking plants and ports decreased, while the inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 166,400 tons to 6,613,100 tons, and the total industrial chain coke inventory increased by 52,300 tons to 9,204,100 tons. Overall, the coke fundamentals have limited drivers, policy uncertainty decreases, market waiting - and - seeing sentiment rises, and pre - holiday capital outflows lead to the weak operation of coke futures [5][32]. - Coking Coal: Pre - holiday risk - aversion sentiment was released. Since the night session last Friday, JM2601 has continuously reduced positions with a downward - trending price, indicating that the market is mainly characterized by long - position holders taking the initiative to exit. Currently, the supply - demand contradiction of coking coal is not obvious, supply is slowly recovering, and demand is stable. The fundamentals lack support, and the recent "anti - involution" policy disturbances have eased, resulting in strong market waiting - and - seeing sentiment. As of the week ending September 26, the daily output of clean coal from 523 coking coal mines nationwide was 772,000 tons, a weekly increase of 11,000 tons but 25,000 tons lower than the same period last year. At the import end, the number of Mongolian coal trucks passing through the 288 port continued to rise, approaching 8000 trucks per week. The combined daily output of sample coking plants and steel mills was 1127,800 tons, a weekly decrease of 5900 tons. Overall, the impact of previous production capacity verifications was basically realized in September, the positive "anti - involution" expectations slowed down, the actual supply of coking coal recovered marginally, and pre - holiday long - position holders' risk - aversion demand led to the oscillatory correction of the main contract. During the holiday, focus on changes in economic policy expectations and whether an increase in coal mine accidents will lead to stricter safety supervision [6][33]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industry News - Manufacturing PMI: China's manufacturing PMI in September was 49.8%, up 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating continued improvement in manufacturing sentiment. Large - scale enterprises' PMI was 51.0%, up 0.2 percentage points; medium - scale enterprises' PMI was 48.8%, down 0.1 percentage points; small - scale enterprises' PMI was 48.2%, up 1.6 percentage points. Among the five sub - indices of the manufacturing PMI, the production index and the supplier delivery time index were above the critical point, while the new order index, raw material inventory index, and employment index were below the critical point [7]. - Coking Coal Price in Xingtai: On September 30, the coking coal prices in the Xingtai market remained stable. The price of low - sulfur main coking coal was 1490 yuan/ton, and the price of 1/3 coking coal was 1170 yuan/ton, both being ex - factory cash - inclusive prices effective from the 1st [9]. Spot Market - Coke and Coking Coal Prices: Provided the price quotes and changes of coke and coking coal in different markets such as Rizhao Port, Qingdao Port, Ganqimao Port, and Jingtang Port, including week - on - week, month - on - month, year - on - year, and compared with the same period changes [11]. Relevant Charts - Coke Inventory: Included charts of coke inventory in 230 independent coking plants, port coke inventory, 247 steel - mill coking plant coke inventory, and total coke inventory [14][15][17]. - Coking Coal Inventory: Included charts of coking coal inventory at mine mouths, in ports, in all - sample independent coking plants, and in 247 sample steel mills [19][22][24]. - Other Charts: Included charts of domestic steel - mill production, Shanghai terminal wire rod and screw - thread steel procurement, washing - plant production, and coking - plant operation [25][28][30]. Future Outlook - Coke: The analysis of coke's supply, demand, and inventory was the same as the core view, concluding that the weak operation of coke futures was due to limited fundamentals, decreased policy uncertainty, increased market waiting - and - seeing sentiment, and pre - holiday capital outflows [32]. - Coking Coal: The analysis of coking coal's supply, demand, and market sentiment was the same as the core view, suggesting that the oscillatory correction of the main contract was due to pre - holiday risk - aversion, limited fundamentals, and marginal supply recovery. Attention should be paid to economic policy expectations and safety supervision during the holiday [33].