策略观点：以时间换空间-20250930

Market Performance Review - The major stock indices showed a mixed performance in September, with growth style leading the way. As of September 26, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.77%, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 4.04%, and the ChiNext Index increased by 9.04% [6][17] - The overall market index rose by 1.31%, with the mid-cap index up by 3.62% and the small-cap index down by 0.30%. The "茅" index increased by 3.25%, and the "宁" combination rose by 9.44% [6][17] - External disturbances were minimal, and the A-share market experienced a rebound after an initial decline following the September 3 military parade. The internal economic data remained stable, and the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut aligned with market expectations [6][17] A-Share High-Frequency Data Tracking - The dynamic HMM timing model indicated that the current market potential returns do not cover risks, leading to a recommendation for a reduced position [28] - The personal investor sentiment index showed a slight recovery, with a 7-day moving average of -4.56% as of September 27, significantly down from 15.96% on September 20 [33] - Financing sentiment has improved, maintaining a net inflow trend, with financing transactions accounting for over 20% of A-share trading volume [38] Future Outlook and Investment Views - The report suggests a "time for space" strategy, waiting for the next policy trigger. Since the market rally began on June 23, the A-share market has accumulated significant gains, and a technical stagnation is observed [7][46] - The expectation is that domestic economic policies will focus on implementing existing plans, with the "15th Five-Year Plan" policies anticipated to trigger the next market rally [7][46] - In terms of asset allocation, Hong Kong stocks are seen as having better value, and the report emphasizes the importance of identifying individual stocks with "turnaround" logic in the A-share market [8][46]