南华期货聚烯烃2025年四季度展望：供需压力尚存，成本支撑渐显

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In Q4, with the intensive production capacity expansion temporarily ending, the core focus of polyolefins will shift to digesting existing production capacity [1]. - Currently, polyolefin profits are significantly compressed, and cost support is strengthening. Particularly for PP, if the low - profit situation persists, high - maintenance levels may continue, providing bottom support [1]. - In Q3, overseas supply increased while demand remained weak. China may passively absorb global surplus resources, leading to an increase in net imports and hindering the "reduce imports, increase exports" strategy [1]. - Polyolefin demand was weak in the second half of the year. Traditional downstream peak seasons underperformed, and the growth of major terminal industries slowed, limiting raw material demand. The introduction of new consumption - stimulating policies is expected to improve demand [2]. - The expected price ranges for Q4 are 6800 - 7300 for PP2601 and 6900 - 7500 for L2601. Recommended strategies include going long on PP at low valuations in the short - term, range - trading for L, positive spreads for short - term PP in monthly spreads, reverse spreads for L, and widening the P - L spread if the downward trend continues [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Review - In Q3, the polyolefin market showed a generally weak and volatile trend. Although it rose due to "anti - involution" policies and related news, the gains were unsustainable due to loose supply and weak demand [5]. - The Q3 market can be divided into three stages: from mid - July to mid - August, polyolefins rose driven by "anti - involution" sentiment and coking coal cost support, but the increase was mainly emotion - and cost - driven; from mid - August to late August, the market was boosted by news of South Korean capacity adjustments, but the weak reality of supply - demand led to a rapid retracement of gains; from late August to late September, the traditional peak season was weak, with slow inventory reduction and low prices [6][7][9]. 2. Core Concerns 2.1 Slowing Production Expansion, Pressure from Existing Supply - This year's new polyolefin production capacity expansion was mainly concentrated in H1. PE added 303 million tons with a growth rate of 9.03%, and PP added 285 million tons with a growth rate of 6.48%. In H2, the pace slowed, with PE expected to add 180 million tons and PP 170 million tons. In Q4, PP's new capacity will be limited, while PE is expected to add 140 million tons [11]. - The total polyolefin production capacity expansion this year was higher than in previous years. PE's annual capacity growth rate is expected to reach 14.39% (LLDPE: 18.31%), and PP's is 10.35%. By September 22, PE's cumulative production increased by 18.01% year - on - year, and PP's by 17.15%. The core issue in Q4 is how to digest existing production capacity [12]. 2.2 High Supply Leads to High Maintenance - In H2, high supply led to high maintenance of upstream polyolefin devices. In Q3, PE's device maintenance losses increased by 18.99% year - on - year, and PP's by 10.80%. In September, PE's single - month maintenance losses reached 394,800 tons (up 65.26% year - on - year), and PP's reached 495,100 tons (up 25.70% year - on - year) [15]. - PE devices are mainly oil - and coal - based, with most maintenance being planned. PP devices, especially PDH routes, are more sensitive to profits. In September, PDH device profits dropped to below - 300 yuan/ton, and the PP - propylene spread narrowed, leading to production cuts [16]. - In Q4, although the planned maintenance in October will decrease, high unexpected maintenance may continue, especially for PP. If profits remain low, high - maintenance levels may support prices [17]. 2.3 "Reduce Imports, Increase Exports" Trend Hindered - In the first three quarters, the "reduce imports, increase exports" trend was significant. By August, PE's cumulative imports decreased by 74,800 tons year - on - year, and exports increased by 151,400 tons. PP's imports decreased by 234,000 tons, and exports increased by 472,500 tons [31][35]. - However, in Q3, overseas supply - demand pressure increased. For PE, North American supply increased while demand was weak, and LLDPE imports may increase in Q4. For PP, weak global demand and increased local supply in Southeast Asia may hinder exports [32][35]. 2.4 Weak Demand in H2 - Polyolefin demand growth slowed in H2. In H1, PE's apparent demand growth rate was 10.5% (up 7.8% year - on - year), and PP's was 11.3% (up 7.6% year - on - year). By August, PE's cumulative demand growth rate dropped to 8.9%, and PP's remained at around 11% [39]. - Traditional downstream peak seasons were weak. PE's agricultural film production and sales season started late, and the recovery slope of the start - up rate was gentle. PP's "Golden September and Silver October" was lackluster, with most downstream industries' orders not improving significantly, and inventory accumulation [40][44]. - The growth of terminal consumption in express delivery, household appliances, and the automotive industry slowed in H2, suppressing polyolefin demand. Without new consumption policies, the supply - demand pressure may remain high [58][59]. 3. Valuation Feedback and Supply - Demand Outlook 3.1 Valuation Feedback - In Q3, PE's production profits from various routes were compressed. Except for coal - based routes with positive profits, other routes were in the red. PE devices were less sensitive to profit fluctuations, and the overall start - up rate was less affected by profits, lacking strong cost support [67]. - PP's profits from various routes also declined in Q3. MTO and PDH devices, which are more sensitive to profits, account for a certain proportion of PP's production capacity, providing some cost - side support. In Q4, the changes in methanol and propane prices will be the focus [71]. 3.2 Supply - Demand Outlook - PE: Supply is expected to increase as devices restart after the September maintenance peak, and new production capacity may come on - stream. Import volume may also increase. Demand is growing month - on - month but with weak year - on - year growth. PE inventory may accumulate again after a short - term decline. Key factors to watch include upstream device commissioning progress, import arrivals, demand recovery, and policy changes [77]. - PP: New production capacity in Q4 is limited, and supply growth is expected to be slow due to low - profit - induced potential production cuts. Demand is "not peaking in the peak season" and is expected to grow limitedly without new policies. Exports may also face pressure. PP inventory is expected to be stable from October to November and may increase in December. Key factors to watch include upstream device operation, new capacity release, and new consumption policies [81].